Friday Morning Update

The weather looks good today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with sunshine and pleasant conditions.  But a strong storm system will near the state this weekend with increasing thunderstorm chances.  Some severe weather will be possible including large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes.

This morning will begin with upper 40s to lower 50s and mainly clear sky.  Some patchy fog is possible across some of the valleys of eastern OK but this will not be significant.  

Later today winds will back from the east-northeast to the southeast with wind speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range.  Later tonight low level moisture is expected to move northward across the state into southern Kansas.  As this process occurs, a few isolated showers or storms will be possible across far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.  This chance will remain low, but not zero. 

Saturday will feature gusty south winds and temps in the mid-80s.  A layer of warm air aloft, the cap, will more than likely suppress thunderstorm activity until late Saturday afternoon and evening across the western third of the state.  The atmosphere will become extremely unstable with convective and potential energy parameters increasing during the afternoon.  A surface dry line should develop across the western third of the state with a surface low across either NW OK or southeastern Colorado.   Late Saturday afternoon a subtle wave of instability will move across the high plains of Texas and cause a few storms to develop across southwestern or western OK.  These storms would quickly become severe with damaging winds and very large hail.  As the storms progress east and northeast by Saturday evening, conditions for rotating thunderstorms are expected to increase.  This time period from late afternoon into the midnight to 2am hours may be the highest tornado potential for the western and central portion of the state.  

Most data now suggest the storms will continue to grow upscale into the early hours of Sunday and move from central OK into part of eastern OK.  Despite the early morning arrival time, some of these storms would still be capable of severe weather. 

Showers and storms may move eastward Sunday morning across far eastern OK and eventually slowly weaken by late morning along the Ok-Ark state line area.   

Sunday mid-day to early afternoon, the dry line and cold front will begin moving eastward and additional thunderstorms are likely to develop near the highway 69-75 corridor southwest to the I-35 corridor of north TX.  These would quickly develop into severe storms and then more rapidly northeast into far eastern OK and western Arkansas by late afternoon and evening.  Conditions for very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes would be possible across the eastern third of the state, with a more concentrated area of severe weather possible across far NE TX into SE OK, and SW Arkansas into extreme NE Louisiana.   

The pattern next week will feature a strong mid-level cut off low lingering near the Missouri Valley region.  This will keep scattered showers near the northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas vicinity for the first few days of next week.  The data is not consistent regarding areal coverage or time periods.  We're keeping a slight mention for the first few days of next week.  This does not appear to be a significant chance of precipitation.  But more importantly, cooler air will filter into the state along with north winds for most of next week.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 74 recorded at 10:49am.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low is 53.

Our daily records include a high of 89 from 1939 and 1936.  The daily record low is 34 from 2013. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Networks across the state this morning.  

You'll also hear me on our Tulsa metro radio partners of Clear Channel Communications including The Twister, KMOD, The Buzz, and The Beat.  

Have a super great day, and remain aware of your weather surroundings this weekend.  

Alan Crone

KOTV

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