Monday Morning Update

We're tracking a storm system near the area this morning bringing some shower and thunderstorm activity to the region.   We're not anticipating any severe storms.   A couple of storms may produce some small hail with thunder and lightning across far southeastern OK, but most activity will be non-severe t-showers and spotty rain showers.  Some small pockets of heavier rainfall can't be ruled out in a few spots, but on average, activity today will not be supportive of high amounts of precipitation.   

We've been watching some showers and thunderstorms overnight moving eastward across the area.  Some hi-res data suggest this batch will continue to move east out of the area by the next few hours.  We may see a break for a few hours this morning before additional showers and storms will develop by late morning into the afternoon hours.  A few showers or storms should also form on the boundary that will move southward across the state this afternoon.  The afternoon highs will range in the lower to mid-70s with south winds shifting out of the north as the boundary passes your area later today and tonight.  Once the front passes, dry air will arrive from the north and end the showers and t-showers across the area.   This dry air will remain through Tuesday and most of Wednesday before another stronger system nears the area by the middle of the week.   

Tuesday should be the best "weather day" of the week with morning lows in the lower 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s with sunshine and light winds.  

Wednesday features windy and warmer conditions and highs in the lower 80s.   

The pattern by the end of the week will support severe weather across the southern plains, but the exact location can't be pinned down at this point.  Here's my best shot based on the "pattern" that we see in the data at this point. 

South winds should return by Tuesday night late into Wednesday as another upper level wave approaches from the west.  The low level flow and trajectory will have a chance to bring some modified Gulf Moisture back into the area by Wednesday night late into Thursday morning.   A dry line feature along with a surface area of low pressure will be positioned northwest of our immediate area, probably across northwestern OK or southwestern Kansas.  Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, a few thunderstorms are expected develop near the dry line and surface low area.  These scattered storms will move east and northeast and would more than likely be severe.  The coverage and number of storms will be low, but we'll keep a 30% chance of a few of these storms holding together and moving into our area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  

A surface boundary should slide across northern OK Thursday and eventually stall near or just south of the I-40 corridor by Thursday late into Friday morning.   South of this boundary, southerly surface flow will bring rich Gulf moisture across Texas into southern OK.  By Saturday into Sunday, another in a series of upper level waves will be approaching the area and storms should develop.  The big question:  Where will the warm-moist sector be positioned when this occurs?  The operational data suggest this would be across southern OK and north TX into the central Texas area this weekend.  But I'm leery of this model output keeping the rich low level moisture slightly south of the northern OK area.  The "pattern" would suggest this warm-moist area would more than likely encompass most of the state, if not the entire state extending into southern Kansas.  We're seeing this in the EURO model solutions compared to the GFS.  The GFS would bring a strong closed low across the area Saturday into Sunday, but would tend to bring northeast winds and cooler air to the state with any severe weather threats confined to southern OK into Texas.  The EURO would keep a southerly flow, warmer air, and a chance for some strong to severe storms across the state this weekend before a front slides southward through the area early next week.  Obviously, we have some inconsistency in the data.  We're also moving into what is normally considered the most active severe weather time period for our area from late April into the month of May.  All of these factors combined should cause us to remain aware of these set-ups and these storm chances as they draw closer to our area by the middle to the end of the week.  We'll have little choice other than to keep a slight to moderate chance of storms in the forecast from Wednesday night through Sunday.  Changes in the forecast are expected so please check back often for updates.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday 76 recorded at 2:59pm.

The normal daily average high is 73 and the low is 51.

Our daily records include a high of 94 from 1965 and a low 0f 32 from 1966. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll also be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll hear the forecast on many of Tulsa's Clear Channel Radio stations this morning including KMOD, The Twister, and others.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV