Good morning! The upper air pattern will bring one more short wave across the area this afternoon before transitioning to more of a zonal flow for a few days this week. Another pattern change by late in the week will allow at least one strong cold front to move near the area Sunday with increasing storm chances. A weak boundary nears Friday.
The weekend featured something for everyone. Saturday was the nice day with dry conditions and highs in the mid-60s. By Saturday evening, the impact of the approaching wave to our south brought some rain to southern OK. Part of this wave brought light showers to the state yesterday with cloudy and cool conditions. Highs yesterday remained in the 50s.
Today we'll start with clouds and lingering showers across eastern OK. We may see a few sun breaks around midday before the next system quickly approaches the state this afternoon and early evening. Highs today will be in the lower 60s with light north winds. Shower and thunderstorm chances will come back up slightly after the 2pm hour with a small short wave dropping down the central plains and crossing NE Ok this afternoon. Slightly colder air aloft compared to yesterday could support some thunder and a few storms may produce some hail.
Tuesday gusty north winds will occur behind the departing system. North winds in the range of 10 to 25 mph will help to keep the highs in the lower to mid-60s. Wednesday gusty south winds and warmer air will reside across the state with temperatures returning to the 70s across eastern OK. Thursday will feature morning lows in the 50s followed by highs around 80 with gusty south winds.
Low level moisture will attempt a comeback Thursday ahead of a Friday cold front that moves across northern OK by afternoon. This may give a few folks a shower or storm, but the chance and coverage will remain low.
Saturday into Sunday the data has been suggesting a much stronger cold front and upper level system to approach the southern plains. The data has been consistent with the advancement of this system, but has had differences in the specific synoptic scale parameters. A few days ago the data suggested another decent shot of severe storms. This may still occur, but at this point, my confidence is still low with this system. Therefore the prudent call is to keep the talk of severe weather on the low side. The pops will be centered for the Sunday.
The EURO is much colder ( and stronger with the H5 low) for Monday. This would be very interesting! Stay tuned.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 55 recorded at 1:45pm.
The normal daily average high is 69 and the low is 47.
Our daily records include a high of 88 from 1949 and 1946. The daily record low is 28 from both 2009 and 1939.
Precip officially yesterday was only 0.09 from Tulsa International.
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