Thursday Morning Update

Storm chances remain today for portions of Eastern OK, including a slight chance for the Tulsa metro.   

The dry line should rapidly move eastward this morning and approach the I-35 corridor by late morning and near Tulsa by 1pm to 2pm.  This feature separates warm-moist air to the east of the dry line from dry air to the west.  Abundant low level moisture will reside near and east of Tulsa this morning into the early afternoon, once again setting the stage for some thunderstorm activity near eastern OK. Yesterday the layer of warm air aloft (the cap) was partly responsible for limiting thunderstorm potential across some areas of the state.  A few storms did form last night across northern OK and southern Kansas where a tornado watch was underway, but no storm activity developed south of Tulsa.   

This morning a few spotty showers or even thunderstorms will remain possible, but the chance will be low.  As the main upper level trough located across the desert southward lifts northeast into the central U.S, the cold front and dry line will move eastward.  The fire danger will increase to near Red flag warning criteria across western and central OK as the dry line this region by midday.    Far Eastern OK will remain in a favorable location for thunderstorm development that could be strong to severe.  Unlike yesterday, more upper level dynamic energy (lift) will be moving near the state by early to late afternoon providing a chance for thunderstorm development this afternoon.  The hi-res models continue to suggest most of the storms will remain east of the Tulsa area.  But it will be close.  Storms could develop very close to Tulsa by 1pm to 2pm  and then expand eastward with additional storm development across eastern OK near and east of highways 69-75 between 3pm and 5pm.  Severe parameters will increase further east and a moderate risk of severe weather is posted for a large portion of Arkansas and points east-northeast.  The main threat for thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be large hail and damaging winds for storms in the initial development stage.  But as storms become mature and sustained, shear profiles would support an increase in tornado threats.  By the time this process occurs, most storms will either be near the Ok-Ark state line or more eastward into Arkansas.  In summary, we continue to have a slight chance of storms in Tulsa today, but higher chances will be located across far eastern OK. 

High temperatures this afternoon will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s with south winds this morning, southwest winds at midday,  and northwest winds this afternoon and evening.  Temps behind the dry line and ahead of the cold front in central OK could reach the mid-80s.  As the cold front passes the northeastern OK late afternoon and early evening, temps will drop slightly and dry air will invade the region.  

The temps Friday will start in the lower 40s with highs in the lower 60s with northwest winds at 10 to 25mph along with sunshine and a few clouds.   Saturday appears pleasant for most of eastern OK with lows near 40 and highs in the mid-60s.  The upper air pattern will allow another system near the state this weekend with increase rain-storm chances Sunday across central and eastern OK.  We have increased the pops Sunday compared to yesterday's numbers.  Temps Sunday will be near 60 along with north winds.   Another system could clip the state Monday into Tuesday, but the chance will remain low with temps on the cool side.  Severe weather is not expected with the weekend and early week system.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 83 recorded at 2:41pm.

The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 45.

Our daily records include a high of 88 from 2011 and a low of 23 from 1975. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state this morning.  You'll also hear our forecast on Clear Channel Radio stations in Tulsa! 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great and safe day. 

Alan Crone

KOTV