Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning.  We're tracking a very active weather pattern for the next few days including a chance of strong to severe storms.  A few storms are possible this morning to our south.  Highs today are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s with a slight chance of a few showers during the day.  Then a few storms will be possible later tonight into pre-dawn Wednesday morning across far northern OK into southern Kansas.  

A strong upper level system will be nearing the four corners area this afternoon and tomorrow.  A surface area of low pressure will begin deepening to the west.  The surface boundary that moved southward yesterday will move northward as a warm front later tonight.  Scattered storms will be likely along and north of the warm front across far northern OK and southern Kansas.  A few of these storms could be severe with large hail. The data this morning suggest the coverage will be further north across east-central Kansas, but we'll keep the 30% pop for the time period. Later this afternoon a small area of far southwestern OK and part of northwest TX could see a window for surface based thunderstorm development.  If this occurs, all modes of severe weather would be possible.  

Wednesday will feature a surface low across northwestern OK with a dry line trailing into central OK by late afternoon.  Convective potential energy values will be increasing by late afternoon with gusty south winds and increasing low level moisture.  Some data suggest a capping inversion will hold convection for most of the day, but should weaken by late Wednesday afternoon.  Scattered storms are possible by afternoon and evening and would be severe with all modes of severe weather possible.  This morning's data is not very robust with the coverage of possible thunderstorms and would suggest a lower probability than we're currently carrying for the period.  At this point, we'll more than likely keep the 60% pop on the map.   If storms do form, they would move east and northeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning out of the eastern third of the state, but the main upper level trough will not pass the area until Friday morning.  This means another round of strong to severe storms would be possible Thursday afternoon near and east of the highway 69-75 corridor.  We will include the Tulsa metro in running for severe storms Thursday afternoon, but the higher threat will quickly move eastward Thursday night into eastern Ok and eventually western Arkansas by early Friday morning.   

Friday afternoon should feature northwest winds and cooler conditions with highs in the 60s.  

Saturday and Sunday feature some controversy in the data regarding coverage and timing of the next few systems nearing the area.  We'll continue to give more credence to an active pattern with a chance for some showers and storms Sunday into Monday across the area with highs near 60.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 4:46pm.

The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 45.

The daily records include a high of 94 from 1946 and a low of 28 from 1972 and 1954.

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  You'll also hear us on a number of Clear Channel Radio stations this morning across northern OK!  I'll have more about this in the next few days! 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

 Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV