Now that the calendar ‘officially' says it is Spring, we need to get our weather to go along. Unfortunately, for Oklahoma that is easier said than done. I say that because this coming weekend and well into the following week do not appear very Spring-like with respect to temperatures.
But, before getting around to that, notice the two maps on the right. Those are what the Climate Prediction Center refers to as their Spring outlooks for temperature and precipitation respectively. What it amounts to is a pretty good signal that we will finally get out of this cooler than normal cycle we have been in for more than a year, but the signal for precipitation is a mixed bag. It is what is referred to as ‘EC' or ‘equal chances'. In other words a 1/3 chance the Spring months will be drier than normal, a 1/3 chance it will be wetter than normal, and a 1/3 chance it will be near normal. What it all adds up to is that there is no well-defined climate driver they can foresee that would provide a signal favoring one or the other of those possible outcomes so I guess you could say they are covering all the bases. Reminds me of some of my weather forecasts, but I digress.
Anyway, that is the long range; now for the immediate future. The sunshine and gusty southerly winds certainly made for a very Spring-like day today and those southerly winds will continue through the overnight hours keeping temperatures very mild to start the day Friday. Morning lows will generally be in the 40s. Gusty southerly winds will prevail for much of the day but shifting to northerly as the next cold front will be pushing through the state by late in the day and overnight. Despite increasing cloud cover, we should make it well into the 70s again Friday. Ahead of the front, there will be a chance of showers/storms, primarily for the more E and SE counties for the evening/overnight hours.
Saturday will be a far different story with gusty N/NE winds, cloudy skies, occasional periods of rain or showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder. Temperatures will start in the 40s and pretty much stay there all day with the winds making it feel much cooler. We should get a break in the rain for Sunday, but gusty N winds will still keep temperatures much below normal with a morning low near freezing and afternoon temperatures in the 40s to near 50. Monday will see another chance of rain or showers with daytime highs still only reaching the lower 50s.
Another push of even colder air will arrive late Monday and if we clear out quickly enough we could see another freeze for Tuesday morning. At least we should get more sunshine that afternoon, but gusty N winds will keep temperatures in the 40s to near 50 at best. A freeze is then expected for Wednesday morning followed by a return to a gusty southerly winds and warmer conditions to finish out the week. By the way, our normal last Spring freeze date is Mar 29.
So, quite a roller coaster ride ahead of us with respect to temperatures, but at least there will also be a chance for some additional rainfall, hopefully enough to do us some good.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.