Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, March 13th 2014, 4:41 am
By: Alan Crone

We're back to spring-like weather today with highs in the lower 70s along with sunshine and gusty southwest winds.  The fire danger will be elevated again due to weather conditions supporting high fire spread across the area.  A storm system arrives Saturday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.   

The pattern will remain active for the next few days as we track several systems near the state.  Today a surface ridge of high pressure will move eastward allowing a return flow from the west and southwest by afternoon.  The temps will respond by moving into the lower 70s.  The humidity will be low and conditions would continue to support high fire danger issues.  The specific parameters for Red Flag Warning status will more than likely not be met, but the conditions will be supportive for a high fire danger day. 

Friday south winds will commence and begin the process of transporting low level moisture into the state by the evening hours as a short wave currently near the four-corner region approaches our area.   As the wave draws near, a surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across either the high plains of Texas or possibly the western areas of north Texas.  Once this low forms, it's expected to move east and slightly northeast by Saturday afternoon into southern and central OK.  This feature combined with the upper level support will lead to increasing rain and storm chances this weekend.  If you're a regular visitor to the blog-discussion, you know the data finally converged on a solution regarding the first wave (Saturday).  The latest data continues to offer support for our forecast and the confidence is increasing in a rain-thunderstorm chance for Saturday.   The parameters will exist for thunderstorms across the southeastern OK and north TX area where moisture, lift, and convective energy will overlap.  More northward across northern OK, rain with some embedded thunder will be likely Saturday as the system moves into the area.  We have continued to increase the pops for this period.  We'll refine the arrival and departure of the event even more tomorrow.  

Sunday the upper level flow will transition to more of a northwest flow.  Another wave will drop down the plains and push a cold front into the state Sunday morning bringing north winds and cooler air into the mid-50s.  The wave may be too far west to impact northeastern OK with high rain chances, but we'll keep a slight chance for the Sunday period as the back end of the Saturday system may linger for a few hours across NE OK Sunday morning. 

Early next week will see improving weather with highs moving into the lower 70s before a stronger looking system approaches by late next week.  We'll anticipate late next week featuring increasing southerly low and low level moisture setting the stage for thunderstorms by the end of the week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 59 from 3:36pm.

The normal daily average high is 61 and the low is 39.

Our daily records include a high of 92 from 1967 and a low of 12 from 1948. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone