This time of year can have some real temperature swings as we were in the 30s Saturday afternoon, made it to 60 on Sunday and then the upper 70s Monday. Today has seen the first 80 degree weather of the year, but Wednesday afternoon will be some 20-30 degrees colder. So, the roller coaster ride continues, but the temperature swings for the rest of the forecast period will not be as extreme.
The warmer weather has been accompanied by gusty SW winds and a very high fire danger situation which will extend into the night tonight. Typically, the winds subside with the setting sun, but another strong cold front will be arriving shortly after dark followed by rapidly rising surface pressure. It is this rapid change in the pressure along with the pressure gradient that will cause our winds for the overnight hours to not only NOT settle down, but become even stronger. Those N/NW winds will be gusting over 40 mph at times for tonight and into the early morning hours. As the day wears on, the winds will be gradually subsiding and quickly calming down by evening as high pressure settles in.
Despite all the wind, the chances of any significant rainfall are pretty slim. A few showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder is possible, primarily over the more eastern counties. As mentioned, it will be cooler Wednesday with daytime highs generally running in the mid 50s after reaching the 80s today. Also, temperatures tonight will be in the 30s but those gusty winds will make it feel much colder with wind chill values likely in the teens for awhile during the morning hours. At least we will have lots of sunshine throughout the day Wednesday.
Since there will not be much in the way of rainfall, the fire danger will remain high and will continue through Thursday as well. A return to SW winds and lots of sunshine again Thursday will push afternoon temperatures much above normal again with highs well into the 60s.
As we go through the latter part of the week, through the weekend, and into next week, a series of disturbances aloft will be passing over the state bringing with them some weaker frontal boundaries, shifting winds, temperatures that will be bouncing around from day to day, but not much in the way of rainfall. There will be another chance of showers/thunder late Fri and through the night as well as into the day Saturday. Another system will bring a chance of rain again on Sunday, but as the 7 day QPF map on the right shows, we remain on the western fringe of the more significant moisture. Any moisture is certainly welcome, but we really need a good soaking and those prospects appear quite slim.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.