Monday Morning Update

Monday, March 10th 2014, 4:28 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning!  Welcome to spring!  At least for the next few days.  Temps today will move into the mid and upper 70s with gusty south winds.  We're tracking another cold front Tuesday afternoon or evening that will bring a slight chance of showers or storms followed by another cool down.  The pattern will remain active with several systems approaching during the next 10 days. 

The surface air flow will allow southwest surface winds this afternoon in the 15 to 25 mph range.  We expect abundant sunshine and highs moving in the mid and upper 70s across eastern OK with warmer air in the western half of the state.  Conditions Tuesday could be slightly warmer before a cold front slides southward Tuesday afternoon bringing very strong north winds and a slight chance of showers or storms.  The data is now suggesting a very fast moving upper level system that will shove a cold front southward by late in the day.  The moisture content will be limited but a narrow axis of instability and moisture will lead to a slight chance of thunder Tuesday evening.  As the front clears the area, very strong north winds in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  The wind speeds may not reach advisory levels, but it may be close.  Wednesday lows will be in the mid-30s with highs in the lower 50s. 

The fire danger will continue to increase today, Tuesday, and Wednesday due to the winds and drying vegetation.  A number of locations will remain under local or county-wide burn bans.   

The end of the week looks good with high pressure Thursday allowing light winds in the morning but increasing by the afternoon, sunshine, and mild weather.  The morning lows Thursday will start in the lower 30s and finish in the mid-60s.  Friday starts around 40 and ends in the mid to upper 60s but sunshine will continue to be the call with increasing south winds. 

Another system will approach Saturday evening into Sunday.  The dynamics will be increasing and moisture will increase along and behind this system.  Rain chances may also be increasing for the Saturday night and Sunday time period.  Saturday's highs will top out around 70 with Sunday only in the upper 40s or lower 50s. The EURO and GFS differ regarding this system. The EURO would keep us wet and cold Sunday, while the GFS would bring only a slight chance of showers to northern OK with higher chances to our south.  Since we're several days away, we'll continue to advertise only slight chances for rain for this forecast cycle.  

We've been cold for so long and it may seem strange to discuss severe weather, but we're starting to move into the beginning of the severe weather season soon.   Severe weather is not expected with any system this week, but it's only a matter of time before adequate moisture and dynamics will bring the severe weather threat back to the region.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 5; 04pm.  Sunrise this morning occurs at 7:42AM and sunset tonight at 7:27pm. 

The normal daily average high is 61 and the low is 38.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1955 and a low of 4 from 1948. 

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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone