Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, March 4th 2014, 4:49 am

Good morning.  We're tracking another system Wednesday that could provide some wintry precipitation across potions of the state.  Temps today will move into the mid or upper 30s with partly sunny conditions.   

The snow cover combined with the arctic air will keep temps in the single digits to lower teens for the next few hours.  The daytime highs will move into the mid and upper 30s this afternoon with increasing high clouds and southeast winds around 10 mph.  Wind chill values will not drop into the -5 to -15 ranges this morning and no wind chill advisory will be posted for the area this morning.  Our next upper level system will arrive Wednesday with a chance of light rain-snow mix, but the timing of the system will need to be monitored carefully.  

The current model data suite and observational data suggest the Wednesday system will arrive by afternoon into the evening hours with temps moving into the upper 30s near 40 by afternoon.  The temps Wednesday morning will start in the lower 20s.  If the system arrives earlier than anticipated, Wednesday morning could support a chance of light freezing rain.  If the system arrives as scheduled, we'll see light showers Wednesday late afternoon before transitioning to snow.  As the system exits the area Wednesday night snow will be possible.  The GFS has trended "wetter" with this system and is now offering anywhere from 1 to near 2 inches of snow across portions of the state.  The NAM is the "outlier" and keeps us very dry.  The EURO is similar to the GFS and moves the shortwave across the northwestern third of the state into the southeastern third by the late Wednesday night time period.   

Thursday and Friday would support warmer air but not as warm as yesterdays data. We'll probably knock the numbers down a few degrees.  

 As the weekend approaches, so does another upper level system and a surface cold front.  This will bring a chance of rain Saturday to southern Kansas and northern OK with highs reaching the 40s s Saturday before north winds develop and bring colder air quickly across the state Saturday afternoon and evening.  We should quickly rebound into the 50s Sunday.  The EURO keeps portions of the upper level system near the state Monday with clouds and some showers, while the GFS is warmer and drier.  We'll keep the forecast dry at this point, but reserve the right to add a slight pop for Monday. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 19 at 4:20pm.

The normal daily average high is 59 and the low is 37.

Our daily records include a high of 83 from 1938 and a  low of 6 from 1960. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone



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