Friday Morning Update

Friday, February 21st 2014, 4:36 am

Temperatures are running into the 30s this morning with relatively calm wind.  Later today southwest surface winds in the 15 to 30 mph range will be common with mostly sunny and mild conditions.  The fire danger will continue to be an issue.  The upper air pattern will bring several fronts into the state including Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This frontal passage will bring some cooler air to the region with mostly cool conditions expected to persist through next week.  

The big winds yesterday resulted in wind gusts over 45 mph across northeastern OK and gusts in the 50 to near 60 mph range across the northwestern third of the state.  The pressure gradient will increase again later today but winds are not expected to be a strong as yesterday.  Highs will move into the mid-60s with mostly sunny and dry conditions.  The low relative humidity and dormant vegetation will create a rapid fire spread condition during the afternoon.  A fire weather watch is currently posted.   

Saturday looks pleasant for most of the day and for most of the state.  Morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be followed by highs in the mid-60s.  A front should enter the northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas vicinity around late afternoon before slowly pushing southward late Saturday night.  Once the boundary moves southward, some moisture return across east-central OK and west Arkansas is possible for early Sunday morning to midday.  We continue to keep a slight chance of light precipitation during this period for those areas but the pop will be less than 20% on the big map.  

Northeast winds will keep Sunday cool with highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s across the region with Tulsa near the upper 40s. 

A fast return to southeast winds will be possible Monday before another boundary slides across the state Monday night into Tuesday bringing colder air to the region.  Highs Monday will be near 50 and Tuesday in the mid to upper 40s will be likely along with a slight chance of showers, but mainly along the Red River Valley.

More cool air is likely Tuesday and Wednesday with the EURO having the colder magnitude. 

 Later in the week, both GFS and EURO had been suggesting a stronger and colder system nearing the state by Friday.  The data suggested much colder air and even a possibility of some wintry precipitation for this time period.  This morning, the data has flipped and keeps us with south winds and increasing storm chances by the 2nd and 3rd of March.  We're not prepared to highlight this portion of the forecast with any confidence regarding precipitation, but the pattern would support some kind of system approaching the area by either late next week or into next weekend.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 67 recorded at 8:42am. 

The normal daily average high is 55 and low is 33.

The daily records include a high of 82 from 1996 and low of 7 from 1936.


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Have a great day!


Alan Crone