Chance of Rain Wednesday Night.


Tuesday, February 18th 2014, 3:29 pm
By: News On 6


The wind and relative humidity maps on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, show why fire weather is a major concern. Fortunately, the winds will be settling down rather quickly after sunset as a weak wind shift boundary moves through the state. Also, humidity levels will be on the increase with the night time cooling and will also be higher over the course of the next few days. In fact, increasing cloud cover is expected by Wed PM and there will also be at least a possibility of some brief showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder that evening through the overnight hours.

Light and variable winds will be the general rule for a time this evening/early tonight, then becoming more N and NE by morning. As we go through the day Wednesday, the winds will be more from the SE and becoming rather gusty again with winds of 15 mph or more at times. A stronger cold front will then arrive by early Thursday along with about a 50% chance of showers or thunder. This will be a quick moving system that will be followed by strong NW winds of 30 mph or more, clearing skies, and somewhat cooler temperatures by Thursday afternoon. Wednesday will start off near 40 that morning, the afternoon will be in the upper 60s, then near 60 that night, and falling into the lower 50s for Thursday afternoon.

Lots of sunshine will prevail for Fri-Sun although temperatures will be bouncing around somewhat due to additional boundaries affecting the state. Friday morning will start off near freezing, but a gusty SW wind should get temperatures to near 70 as well as create another fire danger situation. Northerly winds return for Saturday, then back to the SE Sunday, a more E wind on Monday and brisk northerly winds on Tuesday. The cold front associated with the wind shift early next week looks to have some colder air making it back down this way so although temperatures will be generally running above normal through the weekend, look for a return to more seasonal, if not below normal temperatures, for much of next week. In fact, notice the 8-14 day temperature/precip outlook on the right and although we are on the western edge of the coldest air, we will still see some significant cooling into next week.

There will be another shot at some rain showers with the system early next week but as you can also see from the 7 day QPF map on the right, we are on the western fringe of the more significant precipitation signal. Bottom line is that although a number of systems will be moving across the state in the days/week ahead, so far the rainfall will be generally on the light side and will not do much to alleviate the fire weather concerns.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot