Monday Morning Update

Monday, February 17th 2014, 4:37 am
By: Alan Crone

We're watching a fast moving wave that will bring a few sprinkles to extreme North Eastern OK during the next hour or two.  Another wave enters the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a small window for showers and thunderstorms across eastern OK, and another wave arrives Friday night into Saturday.  

The first wave is moving near the state this morning.  Some low clouds and mild air will be the common denominator for the pre-dawn hours, but a few sprinkles can't be ruled out to the east of Tulsa. 

A scattered deck of broken clouds will be in the mix for the next hour or two before mostly sunny conditions prevail for the day.  

The temperatures today will drop back into the upper 50s or the lower 60s after another surface front slides southward across the state bringing north winds back to the region.  And these winds will be very strong through the middle portion of the day.  Winds may gust from 30 to near 40 mph before the pressure gradient relaxes later this afternoon and evening. The fire danger is elevated today due to the anticipated gusty winds.  

Tuesday into Wednesday the surface pressures to the west drop as the next upper level wave draws near the area.  This means our wind speeds will be increasing in the 15 to 20 mph range for the middle of the week with increasing fire danger despite the increased low level moisture.  

The moisture will be sufficiently deep enough for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into pre-dawn Thursday across the north-eastern third of the state.  As we get closer to the time period, we'll be able to pin point the highest coverage and chance and refine the timing.  At this point, the overall chance remains near 20 to 30%. It's worth mentioning that higher moisture content will be located across the Missouri Valley and points eastward where some severe weather is a possibility Thursday afternoon and evening.   

Thursday into Friday will feature another recovering period with increasing south winds and mild air.  Data support another front zipping across the state Friday night into Saturday morning but moisture is expected to remain very limited.  The chance for measurable precip with this front appears less than 20%.  

Some cooler air will be likely this weekend with temperatures dropping into the 50s for afternoon highs. 

As stated last week, the longer range data continues to suggest another shot of cold air will be possible by early next week.  Stay tuned friends.  We are not finished with winter yet. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 65 recorded at 4:35pm.

The normal daily average high is 54 and the low is 32.

Our daily records include a high of 79 from 2011 and 1907.  The daily record low is 9 from 1993, 1978, and 1936. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone