Friday Morning Update

Friday, February 7th 2014, 4:25 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're continuing to deal with very cold temperatures this morning and wind chill values near subzero readings.  Our highs will make a jump today into the mid and upper 20s as southeast surface winds return this afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph range.  We are tracking a weak disturbance that will brush the area this afternoon and evening bringing a slight chance for some snow showers across eastern OK and western Arkansas.  There will be a higher chance of some minor accumulations across the Texoma Region into southeastern OK.  This system is expected to remain weak with no significant accumulation across the region.  But a few areas may pick up an inch or two across southeastern OK into NW Arkansas in the higher elevations.  Locations about 50 miles north and south of a line from Sherman-Denison to Atoka to near Ft Smith could experience the precipitation.   Next week will feature a chance for additional wintry precipitation for part of the state before a warming trend begins by the middle of the week.  

The weekend should feature a break from the active pattern but not by much.  Tomorrows highs will move into the upper 30s and lower 40s with some sunshine before another cold front sweeps across the area late Saturday night.  This will bring the colder air back to the state with Sunday morning readings in the teens and afternoon temps in the upper 20s or lower 30s.  I do not anticipate any precipitation with the frontal passage Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  

Sunday night into Monday will begin another very active weather pattern for early next week and the model data continues to diverge with the specific solutions. 

The EURO has a shot Sunday late into Monday morning across the area with a chance for a wintry mix, and then brings another larger system into the southern plains Monday night and Tuesday morning with most of the impact staying south of the Tulsa area.  

The GFS brings a system into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning being driven by an upper level trough.  This solution would also give us a chance of some wintry mix followed by some snow late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.  

Our forecast will continue to offer a compromise with a chance both Monday and Tuesday for some wintry mix and cold air.  Once the confidence improves in the data, we'll be able to fine tune the Monday and Tuesday time forecasts with more specifics.  Unfortunately at this time, the confidence continues to be low for the Sunday through Tuesday forecast.  

Following the early week system, we may see a break for the rest of next week with some warmer air!   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 20 recorded at 2:53AM.

The normal daily average high is 51 and the low is 29.

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1909 and a low of 0 from 1933. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks again for reading the blog!

Have a great day! 

Alan Crone