Thursday Morning Update

We're tracking another short wave sliding across the state this morning producing some snow.  Winter weather advisory remains in effect for a large portion of west-central, central, south-central, and southern OK.  The Tulsa area northward is not included in this current winter weather advisory.  Locations south along both sides of the I-40 corridor are included.  Please check the latest advisory information posted on the top of this web page. A wind chill advisory remains for portions of the area this morning.  

Snow has been expanding overnight from across the western third of the state.  This area of snow is expected to reach the central OK vicinity soon.  As the snow moves more east, the conditions will become less favorable for anything more than an inch of snow across northeastern Ok, including the Tulsa metro.  Locations south of Tulsa, including places like Eufaula to McAlester southward could see up to two inches of snow later this morning to midday before the wave exits the region.  The extremely cold air combined with the lift of the system will create high snow to liquid ratios allowing very low moisture to produce effective snow.  But the amounts are expected to remain relatively low. 

The next wave is still possible Friday but has not been consistently modeled in the data.  The data 48 hours ago suggested a higher possibility of some accumulating snow across Eastern OK by Friday evening.  This morning the data is less bullish on the Friday wave, but I'm still inclined to keep a chance in the forecast for Friday and Friday night.  The surface air flow Friday afternoon will back from the southeast which is usually not favorable for a snow event, but it's still a possibility.  If the Friday wave does produce some snow the accumulation would be low. I'll probably take the chance down to 20%.    

The weekend will feature another cold front arriving either late Saturday night or early Sunday morning bringing north winds and more cold air back to the state Sunday and early next week.   The extended data continues to suggest a storm system will impact the area either Monday or Tuesday with additional wintry weather impacts and cold air.  It's too early to pinpoint the exact type and amounts, but the system appears to be a strong weather maker for our immediate areas.  

Another concern is the cold air.  Wind chill advisories will remain in effect for the area this morning with subzero readings likely for the next few hours.  Wind chills from -5 to -12 will be possible this morning across the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas.  Actual surface temps will drop into the single digits with afternoon highs moving into the middle or upper teens for most locations along with cloudy conditions.  Winds will return from the northeast today at 10 to 15 mph.  You are encouraged to dress in layers to limit skin exposure.   

The temperatures Friday will start in the single digits or lower teens before climbing into the upper 20s with clouds and southeast winds.  Some light snow is possible Friday but the chance will remain very low.  We'll refine the Friday snow chances with new data this morning and make changes if needed. 

Saturday temps will start in the teens or lower 20s and move into the mid or upper 30s across northern OK before the next front arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning with more cold air. 

The entire 7 day period will continue to feature temperatures well below the normal daily averages.  

The normal daily average high is 51 and the low is 29.

Our daily records include a high of 73 from the years 2007, 1999, and 1925.  Our daily record of 4 was recorded on this date in 1985.  

Yesterday's high was 26 recorded at 12:31am with temperatures yesterday afternoon in the teens.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV