As mentioned yesterday, we are transitioning into a more interesting and a more active weather pattern during this forecast cycle and that pattern will likely persist into the following week or two as well. Right now, Tuesday looks to be the most interesting day but recent model runs are also placing some big question marks around this coming weekend.
First things first though and that is the fire danger situation. The gusty southerly winds of today will remain rather strong through the overnight hours tonight with winds of 10-20 mph or more. That will keep temperatures from dropping off too much and upper 20s to near 30 should be the general rule to start the day Thursday. Gusty southerly winds up to 30 mph or more during the day along with temperatures reaching the mid 50s will create a high fire danger potential. Fortunately, clouds will be on the increase and so will the low level moisture to mitigate the effects somewhat.
Friday has a high bust potential for temperatures as a cold front will be slowly working its way southward across the state and it will be marked by a rather dramatic temperature contrast. Temperatures will hold in the 30s that morning ahead of the front along with cloudy skies and a SE wind. By afternoon the front will be sagging further southward with upper 30s to lower 40s and a brisk N to NE wind behind the front and 50s to lower 60s ahead of it. Obviously, timing will be everything regarding when the colder air arrives at your house. There will also be a slight chance of some light showers which could be a wintry mix that night.
Northerly winds, mostly cloudy skies and lower 40s will be the general rule for Saturday along with only a slight chance of some showers, possibly a wintry mix that morning. Sunday could be a little more interesting with temperatures starting in the 20s and not much above freezing during the day. At the same time, a disturbance will be passing overhead which could drop some snow for some locations, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding strength and amounts that may fall from this system. Right now, it looks like it should be on the light side for those locations that do get some snow.
Monday looks to be mostly dry but cold with daytime highs only near 40. However, that means cold air is already in place and with an even stronger storm system aloft drawing a bead on the state, the stage is set for what could be a more interesting day Tuesday. Again, this is at a forecast range in which uncertainties abound but all indications point to at least some wintry precipitation and it could turn out to be a significant event. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right. Although the heavier amounts are still east of us, just about all of that here in EOK would be some form of wintry precipitation, most likely snow.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.