The warm up begins today with southwest winds, sunshine, and highs in the mid to upper 40s. The fire danger will be elevated today and near the high category tomorrow across most of the state. The main focus of the forecast is starting to center on a strong system for next week. The GFS and EURO data have been converging on a solution offering rain Tuesday and some snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across northern OK. We're a full week away from this system, but the pattern change this weekend will be favorable for bringing a strong system into the region early next week. There will be some differences in positioning and timing between now and next week. The last run of the EURO is more south compared to the GFS.
The temps today will move from the teens this morning into the mid and upper 40s this afternoon as strong southwest winds develop by midday. A surface ridge of high pressure is located near the area this morning but will move eastward by afternoon allowing the return surface flow from the southwest. The pressure will begin to fall to our west as the next upper level system approaches the four corners area and a surface trough develops across western OK, western Kansas and portions of Eastern Colorado. The result will be the strong gusty southwest winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. The dry conditions combined with low humidity and gusty wind will promote a rapid fire growth this afternoon. Conditions will be duplicated Thursday with even warmer surface temps.
Friday a surface low will scoot across the state. South winds will attempt to briefly bring some low quality moisture into the far eastern OK and western Arkansas vicinity. A weak upper level wave may bring just enough lift to generate some light precip in the form of drizzle or light freezing drizzle Friday morning across these areas. Saturday morning some additional light precip may be possible in the same areas before a cold front pushed southward across at least northern OK with north winds. These chances will be represented by very low probabilities. This boundary will remain near the state Sunday but should oscillate northward into southern Kansas Monday.
A weak upper level wave may approach the area Sunday night into Monday morning with some light precip but the data this morning is not as suggestive as yesterday's runs. We've been inserting and deleting this pop for the past few days but will keep the pop in the Sunday period for this cycle.
Surprisingly, the data continues to support the strong Tuesday and Wednesday system. As I wrote earlier, we will have some timing and positioning issues that may result in some changes regarding the Tuesday and Wednesday forecast on occasion. But the forecast will keep a rather high pop on the board for this system even though we're a week out.
The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 31 recorded at 4:37pm.
The normal daily average high is 49 and the low is 28.
Daily records include a high of 76 from 2011 and a low of -2 from 1949.
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