Friday Morning Update

We're dealing with some subzero wind chill values this morning for the next few hours across part of northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.  But our attention quickly turns to a high fire danger this afternoon with strong winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation across our area.  Red Flag Warnings may be required for some portion of the region despite the cold air.  High temps this afternoon will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s but strong southwest winds will also produce afternoon wind chill values in the 20s and lower 30s.   

A surface ridge of high pressure is very close to northeastern OK this morning.  This has allowed the winds will become calm overnight but as the ridge quickly moves eastward, southwest winds will also quickly develop by late morning into the midday period.  We do anticipate sunshine today with a few clouds but the strong winds will off-set the potential warm up into the 30s and lower 40s. 

The good news remains for the weekend:  much warmer air is likely.  Morning lows will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s but afternoon highs will move into the mid to upper 50s Saturday despite another frontal passage by midday.  Warmer air is also likely Sunday with afternoon highs nearing the lower or mid-60s across eastern OK.  Some lower 70s will be possible across far western OK.  Strong southwest winds Sunday afternoon may also increase the fire danger.   

The upper air pattern has not changed yet, but we are seeing signs in the data of a major pattern shift by the end of the month into February.   We anticipate another frontal passage either Sunday late or Monday morning bringing more cold air back to the area.  Monday highs may stay in the upper 20s with mostly cloudy conditions and strong northeast winds.  The EURO data is suggesting a weak upper level disturbance will slide across northern OK Monday evening into Tuesday morning.  This wave may produce some light snow across the western or central portions of OK into the southwestern third of the state.  We may eventually include a slight chance of some light snow in our forecast for the Monday evening or Tuesday morning period, but the chance will remain low.  At this point, the precip will remain of the big 7 day planner. 

The cold air is expected to remain into the middle portion of next week with some single digit lows a possibility by Wednesday morning.  The return flow Thursday and Friday of next week will increase the temps and also bring another system near the state by the following weekend.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 32 recorded at 12:09am.  Most of the afternoon temps leveled off in the upper teens and lower 20s. 

The normal daily average high is 49 and the low is 28. 

Our daily records include a high of 79 from 1950 and a low -4 from 1906. 

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Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV