Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, January 22nd 2014, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone

The cold air mass will keep the morning temps in the 20s followed by highs this afternoon into the lower to mid-40s.  But another significant surge of cold air will arrive tonight knocking the temps back down into the cellar for Thursday and Friday.  This arctic air mass will be short lived and a robust warm up is expected for the weekend with highs in the 50s Saturday and near 60 Sunday.  

Yesterday's air mass was colder by a few degrees with afternoon temps across some sections of NE OK only in the 20s.  The south winds this morning have brought our temps into the lower 20s with some wind chill values in the teens.  A boundary arrives with north winds during the next few hours but temps will move into the lower and mid-40s for afternoon highs along with sunshine until later this afternoon when some high and mid clouds will approach from the west.  The colder air arrives later tonight and this will set the stage for a very cold 48 hour period.  One of the issues we'll be watching closely will be the expected wind chill values for Thursday morning.  Model projections support wind chills from 0 to -15 across the northern third of the state.  These readings would require wind chill advisories for a few hours early Thursday morning.   

Data supports a fast moving short wave dropping out of the Rockies into the northwest TX region Friday morning and then sliding southeast across the Lone Star State.  Some light wintry precip is likely across the high plains of Texas with a chance for some rain or freezing rain across southern TX by Friday.  This wave appears to be too far west and south to have a major impact on northern OK.  We may see a few clouds from this system but no precipitation is expected.

The extended data supports another frontal intrusion Monday with cold air for about 24 to 36 hours.   But the moisture will be very limited and no precipitation is likely to occur.  

The ensemble data does support a pattern change for the end of the month into early February.  Until this pattern change takes place, we'll see several frontal intrusions on the roller coaster of temps but with very little precipitation chances.  Because of the extremely dry vegetation and lack of rain, several counties across the state will be adopting burn bans soon.  Please check your local municipality or county for specific regulations or requirements.  Regardless of any official bans, weather conditions would create erratic wild fire growth potential for the next few days and burning is discouraged.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 40 recorded at 12:15am.  Most of the afternoon temps stayed near or slightly below freezing.

The normal average high is 48 and the low is 27. 

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1909 and a low of -16 from 1930.

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a great day! 

Alan Crone