Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, January 16th 2014, 4:37 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking yet another front in a series of fronts that will cross our area.  This boundary is located near Tulsa this morning and will quickly move southeast bringing strong winds back to the state.  A few clouds will be along and behind the boundary for the next few hours, but no rain is expected in our immediate area.  Some light drizzle is a very low possibility across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas pre-dawn but this chance remains low.  The fire danger is very high today across most of the state with critical fire weather spreads across central and western OK.  Criteria for Red Flag Warnings will not be met regarding the daytime temperatures, but humidity and wind issues will be primed for erratic wild fire growth.  You are encouraged to refrain from outdoor burning.   

The upper air flow continues to be from the northwest and this will allow frequent cold front passages across the state.  This pattern is an active pattern but the lack of low level moisture gives the impression of a quiet and non-eventful week regarding our sensible weather.  Mid-level moisture has been transported southeast.    The Tuesday morning wave did result in some sprinkles, but the lack of quality moisture will keep the forecast dry through the next several days.  If this were March or April, we would be experiencing thunderstorms or at least storm chances almost every day!  

After the front clears our region this morning, strong northwest winds will quickly develop in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts from 30 to 35 mph.  Higher gusts will be possible across central and western OK where wind advisories may be required for gusts over 40 mph.  Later tonight, another fast moving boundary will clear the state bringing a quick bout of colder air northeastern OK and the Missouri Valley.  Most data this morning has suggested morning lows in the mid-20s followed by highs in the lower 40s regarding Friday.  We have been forecasting mid-40s despite the lower model suggestions and will continue to do so for this forecast cycle.  We think the cold air will quickly modify Friday midday to afternoon with a minor rebound into the mid-40s for Tulsa.  Locations east and northeast of Tulsa may easily stay near 40 for a high. 

Saturday into Sunday will also be active.  Saturday starts with another wave dropping southeast with a few clouds but no cold air.  A down sloping component to the wind will allow mid or upper 50s Saturday afternoon with some sunshine despite the passage of the wave.  Southwest surface winds quickly return Sunday with the possibility of lower and mid-60s for Northeastern OK.  We continue to think the Sunday time period may also be warmer than model suggestions and will continue to forecast highs in the 65 to 68 degree range for the afternoon even though the confidence for these numbers remains on the low side.  I must stress the model suggestions are much cooler and the bust potential remains for Sunday.  

The next system will near the state Monday into Tuesday but this one will approach in the southern stream.  This disturbance may remain too far southeast to impact our area directly and low level moisture may once again be supplanted away from the eastern OK vicinity.  If this is the case, no precipitation would move into our immediate areas next week and we'll keep the extended dry for this cycle.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 49 recorded at 4:23pm.

The normal daily average high is 48 and the low is 27.

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1938 and a low 1 from 1920. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone