Been awhile since we have seen much sunshine and an even longer while since temperatures have been warmer than normal. In fact, so far this month the average temperature is still running nearly 10 degrees below normal. That is all changing as a Pacific cool front will be pushing across the state this afternoon bringing drier, but not necessarily cooler air our way. This system is also quickly pushing any lingering showers on eastward so we will have a dry, mild weekend.
The W winds behind the front will bring clearing skies and the more NW winds will bring somewhat cooler air back into the state, As a result, after being well into the 50s this afternoon, we will drop back to near freezing to start the day on Saturday. However, the more westerly wind component is a warm wind for us and the abundant sunshine will push temperatures well into the 50s again that afternoon.
Sunday will also have lots of sunshine but our winds will be from a more S to SW direction in advance of another weak Pacific cool front that will arrive that night. The SW wind component, the mostly sunny skies, and any potential compressional warming in advance of the front should all combine to push daytime temperatures well into the 60s. This is also expected to be a dry system although there may be a few showers Sunday night into Monday along the OK/ARK state line and points eastward. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which has the state pretty much high and dry through that time period.
Despite the N to NW winds behind that boundary, this is largely Pacific air coming across the Rockies so although it will be cooler on Monday, temperatures are expected to still be above normal. That will also be the case for much of the coming week as temperatures are expected to be running above normal each day despite a series of boundaries coming our way. As mentioned above, we are also expecting to be dry through that period. By Friday of next week, a stronger cool front looks to be coming our way, but there are still no signs of any more arctic outbreaks any time soon.
In fact, if you look at the second and third maps on the right, you can see that the 8-14 day outlooks are also keeping the really cold air bottled up well to the north. As a result, there is a pretty good signal that we will be warmer than normal and drier than normal over the course of the next two weeks.
So, enjoy this nice break; we still have a lot of winter ahead of us.