Tuesday Morning Update

Cold air and another chance of some precipitation will headline the forecast.  Temps in the single digits this morning will rise into the upper 30s or even lower 40s this afternoon along with gusty southwest winds.  Wind chill values later today will be in the lower to middle teens and into the upper 20s and lower 30s this afternoon.  Some readings this morning will be sub-freezing, but not as cold as yesterday morning. Sunshine combined with the southwest winds and relatively warmer air will erode most of the remaining snow/ice across most of northern OK and southern Kansas.  A few spots protected by shadows will survive one more day. We're tracking two systems over the next 5 days with the first arriving Wednesday and the second Friday.  The Wednesday system has a chance of some wintry weather impact while the second will be all rain.  

The model data is a bit tricky regarding the Wednesday evening/Thursday pre-dawn system for northern OK.  The point soundings indicate dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere with the lower levels saturated.  The temp profile is near or slightly below freezing through the lowest few thousand feet before reaching the surface.  Most of the time, this type of data would support very light drizzle or sprinkles with the potential for some freezing drizzle as surface temps drop to near freezing Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Some of the data (RPM) suggest slightly better moisture content in the mid-levels and slightly colder air through the column of air to the surface Wednesday night.  Therefore the RPM data suggest some light sleet or even snow would be possible Wednesday night across far northeastern OK, southeastern Kansas, and northwestern Arkansas.  Just remain aware of the potential for some minor wintry weather impacts Wednesday night.  

The second system supports rain as the temps in the profile (through the column of air the atmosphere to the surface) would not support any type of wintry precipitation for our immediate area of concern.  

The temps in the extended forecast will continue to climb with daytime highs nearing the lower to mid-50s this weekend Sunday.  

We anticipate another front arriving sometime early next week, but the air mass behind the boundary will not be of arctic origin.  I must stress we're not finished with the arctic intrusions, but we should get a break after the current air mass moves eastward and modifies.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 17 recorded at 4:41pm.

This included a new daily record low yesterday morning of -2 that surpassed the old daily record of 0 from 1912.

The daily average high is 47 and the low is 27.

Our daily records for January 7th includes a high of 77 from 1965 and a low of -5 from 1912. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone

KOTV