Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 15th 2013, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect some sunshine today with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-60s.  A few showers may be possible Saturday but strong winds and warmer air will be the dominate feature.  

The fast moving wave that brought a few showers to the NE OK region last night is rapidly lifting northeast of the state this morning.  Cloud cover should thin out for a while with some sunshine before additional clouds arrive later tonight and tomorrow.  Morning lows in the lower 40s will move into the mid-60s today along with gusty southeast winds from 10 to 20 mph.  Even stronger winds are likely Saturday with a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms and highs in the lower 70s. 

South winds will continue to bring in some low level moisture during the next 24 hours in the form of higher dew points.  A disturbance will approach tomorrow and should fire off a few showers and thunderstorms across the central or northeastern portion of the state.  I still expect the coverage to remain low but a few locations will experience some activity.  We'll keep the pops anywhere from 30 to 40%.

Some of the data also supports a narrow corridor of instability with potential convective energy allowing for some thunder and lightning with a few cells.  I do not anticipate any severe weather in our immediate area.  

The wave will exit the state tomorrow night and very strong winds in the lower to mid-level of the atmosphere may act to shunt the low level moisture into Arkansas by Sunday morning.  If this is the case, we will not have any precip for the Sunday time period.  I'll more than likely carry a 10% mention for the far eastern portion of the state during the Sunday time period just in case something wacky occurs, but we anticipate the storms remaining to the east of our area Sunday and Sunday night. 

A strong cold front will arrive Sunday afternoon bringing northwest winds and cooler air for a few days next week.  The air mass behind the Sunday front is not expected to be exceptionally cold but should knock us down a few degrees. The data continues to trend warmer with the post frontal air mass and we'll keep Monday in the mid to upper 50s which is considerably warmer than models suggested for this time period a week ago.  We anticipate another mild warm up next week with highs moving back into the 60s by Wednesday with another system nearing the state by the end of next week.   

This active pattern should repeat by next weekend with a chance of showers or thunderstorms followed by another cool down about 7 days from now. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 56 recorded at 2:21pm.

The normal daily average high is 61 and the low is 40.

Our daily records include a high of 82 from 1950 and a low of 11 from 1940.

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Have a super great day.

Alan Crone