Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, November 12th 2013, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to winter.  A stout arctic cold front rolled over the state last night bringing strong north winds and much colder air to the region.  Morning lows will eventually drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s with wind chills in the teens.  Our afternoon highs will reach the 40 to 42 range but wind chills will remain in the lower to mid-30s for the day.  Despite full sunshine today you'll need the big coat! 

We experienced a few small areas of drizzle late last night but the precipitation is now gone and the clouds are also rapidly decreasing from the north to south.   

The dry air, light winds, and clear sky will allow temperatures tomorrow morning to drop into the upper teens and lower 20s.  This means a killing freeze is likely across most of the northern two thirds of the state and possibly across most of southern OK.  Our friends from the National Weather Service will issue a "hard freeze warning" for almost the entire state beginning tonight at 6pm and continuing through 11am Wednesday morning.  

The air mass will modify Wednesday afternoon with readings moving back into the mid and upper 40s along with south winds returning around 10 mph.  

Thursday into Friday a fast moving wave will bring a slight chance of showers to the region but the lower levels are expected to remain very dry.  We'll keep a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast but very little is expected.  Temperatures Friday will be in the 50s for highs after morning lows in the lower to mid-40s. 

The weekend may feature a more robust moisture return along with gusty south winds as another upper level system nears the state. 

The data diverges quite a bit with the strength of the upper level system.  The GFS is stronger and slightly closed compared to the weaker and more open EURO.  Consequently the GFS offers a much higher likelihood for rain-thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning while the EURO keeps most of the moisture east of the region during this period.  EURO is also much colder Monday with a frontal passage compared to our GFS runs.  O the joy of forecasting.  We'll continue with a blend of data until confidence increases.  I will give a little more credence to the colder air following the Monday passage in the EURO.    

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 71 recorded at 3:21pm.

The normal daily average high is 63 and the low is 41.

Our daily records include a high of 83 from 1999 and a low of 15 from 1911.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone