Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, November 7th 2013, 4:37 am
By: Alan Crone

Good Morning.  We're currently under freeze warnings across portions of northern OK and freeze advisories across southern and south-central OK and a small portion of southern Kansas.  The Tulsa county area is not included in the official freeze warning, but temperatures will be very close to freezing before sunrise this morning.  The weather this afternoon is expected to be beautiful with light winds, abundant sunshine, and daytime highs in the lower 60s.  The next chance for precipitation will arrive sometime early to the middle of next week.  

Early this morning you may find some fog near valleys and bodies of water.  This will not last long but you need to be aware of this issue.

The upper air flow will allow a stout mid-level disturbance to dive across the northern and central high plains, basically moving across southern Nebraska Friday night into Saturday.  This disturbance may drive a southward moving cold front through the mid Missouri Valley into part of northern OK before the front either stalls or become diffuse Saturday and Sunday.  If this is the case, our winds will remain from the southeast or east this weekend with moderate temps with a weak wind shift late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Morning lows in the 40s will be followed by afternoon highs in the mid-60s or even upper 60s.  The lower level of the atmosphere will remain too dry to support any rain this weekend. 

Next week south winds will return attempting to bring some moisture back into the state.  EURO data has suggested a few sprinkles or small showers Monday into Tuesday, while the GFS suggest some activity will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.  The timing of this system will probably change but at this point we'll keep our forecast with low probabilities early next week from Tuesday into Wednesday.  There will eventually be a day (probably Wednesday) that will eventually require higher probabilities.   

The data this morning also supports a sharp cold front driving across the state either Tuesday or Wednesday with much colder air and north winds.  At this point, the upper air pattern in the model data diverges.   

The EURO develops a strong closed low Friday into Saturday very close to the state while the GFS brings a long open wave across the plains with little impact.  The EURO solution would result in a very cold and wet solution.  Thankfully we're many days away from this time period.  Stay tuned.  This could get interesting.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 61 recorded right after midnight at 12:19AM but the temps leveled off during the afternoon at 52-53 area wide.  

The normal daily average high is 65 and the low is 43.

Daily records include a high of 86 from 2005 and a low of 22 from 1991.  

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Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone