Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 1st 2013, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

Howdy friends!  We're expecting absolutely wonderful fall-like weather for the next few days before another major storm system impacts our area early next week.  Sunshine will be the call for most of today and this weekend with no rain.  A few clouds will be possible later today as a fast moving front zips across the region.  The system next week may also produce moderate to heavy rainfall followed by colder air for the second half of the week.

The clouds cleared out yesterday afternoon on schedule and allowed for a windy but pleasant Thursday afternoon.  The dry air now in place is allowing morning lows in the mid 40s with clear sky across the state this morning.  We'll be moving to near 70 this afternoon before another fast moving surge of cooler air arrives late this afternoon and evening.  West to southwest winds will prevail until 2pm today when northwest winds will arrive ushering in some cooler air and a few clouds for Friday night football.   Football games will start in the 60s and finish in the 50s with north breezes around 10 mph. 

Saturday morning lows will drop into the lower 40s with highs only in the lower 60s.  A surface ridge of high pressure will build down across central Kansas and eventually extend into central OK.  This will circulate cool and dry air from the central plains into the northeastern third of the state. 

Sunday morning dry air, light wind, and clear sky will allow for radiational cooling and temps will drop just above the local dew points.  This means the Tulsa metro will be near 36 to 38 before temps warm into the mid 60s by Sunday afternoon.  Sunday afternoon south winds will begin increasing speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range as the next upper level system approaches the region.

This system should remain an open wave and move across the state Tuesday and Wednesday before lifting northeast by the end of the week. The extended data is similar with the pattern but the usual timing issues remain when comparing the EURO and GFS.  Yesterday morning's EURO started the rain Monday night and didn't finish until Wednesday afternoon, while the GFS delayed the rain until Tuesday and wrapped up Wednesday morning.  Our forecast will continue to call for a middle ground approach of increasing rain chances Monday night through Wednesday morning with the higher likelihood occurring Tuesday.  It's too early to discuss any specific severe weather threat, but the pattern would suggest any severe threat would remain south of the area.  The higher threat will remain moderate to heavy rainfall.  

Temperatures will remain cool early next week with highs in the lower to mid-60s, but Tuesday into Wednesday may feature much colder air depending upon the exact path of the surface low.  At this point, I'll keep the temps on the cool side for the remainder of next week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 70 recorded at 10:31am

but the afternoon temperature at 5pm was 64.
The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 46.

Our daily records include a high of 85 from 1916 and a low of 25 from 1991 and 1925.

Precip for the year is 29.40" which is -6.27 compared to yearly precip to date of  35.67".

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I'll also be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma news Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan crone