Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, October 29th 2013, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking some thunderstorms this morning across southern Kansas and a few showers across northern OK.  A few strong storms may occur with small hail and gusty winds in southern Kansas, but the overall threat of surface based severe weather will remain low today.  A strong upper level trough continues to draw near the state with increasing rain and storm chances until Thursday.  The highest chance for thunderstorm activity will occur Wednesday and some storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be severe.  Locally heavy rainfall will also be a possibility with the Wednesday storm activity.

Moisture has made a robust comeback across the state compared to this past weekend.  A strong low level jet (winds off the surface) is aiding in the development of shower and thunderstorm activity this morning.  As the low level jet moves northeast away from the region this morning, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will lift northeast away from the state.  Strong south winds at 15 to 35 mph will be likely today and tomorrow in advance of the trough.  This will continue to enforce the low level moisture across the state setting the stage for thunderstorms Wednesday.  Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-70s today.

The exact timing of the system seems clearer today compared to the previous two days, but the exact storm parameters may still change.  After this morning, we may be in a holding pattern regarding thunderstorms for the rest of the day as a warm layer of air at 3 to 5k feet spreads across the eastern third of the state.  This "cap" may keep " most" precipitation from developing later today and early evening before colder air aloft arrives late Tuesday night. Some scattered storms will be possible but the coverage today should remain spotty.   As the temperature profile aloft changes, thunderstorms will more than likely develop tonight into Wednesday morning across part of central or northeastern OK.   This is a complicating factor regarding Wednesday afternoon and evening thunderstorm scenarios.  If early Wednesday morning storms form this may act to limit surface instabilities Wednesday afternoon across central and eastern OK.  If storms do not form Wednesday morning, severe parameters may increase for Wednesday afternoon and evening storms across our region.  Regardless, we'll need to communicate this uncertainty but also encourage folks to remain aware of the severe potential.

The actual surface cold front should sweep across the area sometime Thursday morning with dry and stable air following the frontal passage.  The GFS is the fastest and the NAM is the slower of the models.  Regardless, thunderstorms should rapidly end and exit the state by at least Thursday afternoon if not sooner leaving Halloween evening in good shape for the region.  Thursday night will feature gusty northwest winds, clearing sky, and temps dropping from the lower 60s into the upper 50s by mid-evening. 

Friday into the weekend also appears in fine shape with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs either in the mid to upper 60s or near 70 depending upon your model of choice.  We'll lean toward a cooler solution with Friday and Saturday highs in the upper 60s.

GFS and EURO data both suggest another strong looking southern stream system nearing the region Monday into Tuesday with increasing rain and storm chances. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 70 recorded at 3:52pm.
The normal daily average high is 69 and the low is 47.
Our daily records include a high of 90 from 1950 and a low of 23 from this date in 1913.

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone