Monday Morning Update

The much advertised upper level system is moving down the west coast today and will move out into the central plains Tuesday and Wednesday.  Thunderstorm chances will be increasing over part of our area beginning tonight into Tuesday before exiting the state Thursday morning.  Severe weather is a possibility.  

The weekend featured some rain Saturday, mainly for southern and central parts of the state, and some sunshine Sunday.  South winds returned late last night and low level moisture surged back across the Northern OK region.  Consequently fog has formed this morning in some locations and will remain for the next few hours.  Some fog may be locally dense.  Please check the "red bar" on the top of the web page for any advisories for the area.  

Temperatures this morning will be mild and will move into the lower 70s for afternoon highs along with increasing south winds at 10 to 25 mph.  Mild air will remain until the system passes the region.  The air mass behind the departing front is now not expected to be exceptionally cold.  Last week data did suggest a major cool down, but this is not the case now.  I'll keep some temps in the upper 60s from Thursday into the weekend with morning lows in the 40s/.   

Storms will be possible this evening across far NW OK into Western Kansas and some may be severe.  Late tonight into Tuesday morning scattered storms will be possible across northern OK and southern Kansas with moisture streaming across the state.  A few of these could be strong to near severe.  Tuesday afternoon a few thunderstorms will develop across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas.  Some of these will be severe. A stronger CAP may prevent most storms from developing over eastern OK during the day Tuesday.   The system will shift eastward into central and eastern OK Wednesday with a threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall.  The main threat at this time appears to be large hail and damaging winds.  We'll be re-accessing the severe weather threat every few hours until the system arrives, and changes may still yet occur to the forecast.  At this point, the upper air profile would support more in the way of linear thunderstorm activity or squall line segments.   

Most data support the boundary exiting the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning taking the precip away from the area and dragging some dry air across the area.  If this timing remains correct most of Thursday night (Halloween Evening) should be dry. This morning the NAM is now the slowest model not bringing the front across the eastern OK areas until Thursday morning while the GFS is the fastest exiting the storms after midnight to 3AM Thursday.  The EURO seems to be "in between" for this latest cycle.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 68 recorded at 3:37pm.

The normal daily average high is  69 and the low is 47.

Daily records include a high of 86 from 1922 and a low of 23  1925.

Precip for the year is  28.26 inches which is  -6.91 below average compared to our yearly to pecip to date of 35.17". 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

You'll also find me on Facebook and Twitter  ( @alancrone).

I follow- back all who follow me. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV