Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, October 16th 2013, 4:34 am

A cool air mass has settled across southern Kansas and northern OK with temperatures in the 40s this morning.   A few showers are still noted on the radar across north TX and extreme southern OK but should remain south for the next few hours before moving out of the state.  I expect highs today around 60 to 63 with northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Sunshine will be the call for the next few hours across the northern half of the state, but clouds will quickly arrive later as a fast moving upper level wave approaches the area.  

The moisture at the lower level of the atmosphere is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours across northern OK but some sprinkles will be a possibility late tonight into Thursday morning across part of eastern OK.  This pop will be represented by a 10% chance for later this evening into Thursday morning.  

Another fast moving system should arrive Friday into Friday evening bringing another chance for some showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  GFS, EURO, and NAM data are now all suggesting a long wave trough to approach the area Friday night into Saturday morning.  A surface area of low pressure should form to our southwest and drop south Friday night.  Some shower activity will be a possibility with this system, but the overall coverage remains a low confidence.  NAM data is more aggressive across extreme northern OK while others are less so, but we'll keep a 20 to 30% chance for some activity during this time period.  The higher coverage of rain-storms will be southward across the Lone Star State if the EURO pans out.  

Saturday into Sunday should support cool mornings and mild afternoons with Saturday in the mid to upper 60s and Sunday near 70. We anticipate a mainly sunny weekend but a few clouds will be in the mix at times.  

Another fast moving wave will approach the central plains Monday but our chance for showers or storms will remain near or less than 20% for this forecast cycle.  

The data diverges early next week with EURO supporting a much colder air mass arriving Wednesday into the end of the week.  This would knock highs down into the lower 50s by Wednesday and Thursday.  Thankfully this is just out of the 7 day planner time period and we'll have another day or two of model runs to examine.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 72 recorded early in the day, but daytime temps remained near 59 for the afternoon.

The normal daily average high is 73 and the low is 51.

Daily records include a high of 93 recorded in 1917 a low of 32 from 1966.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

I'll be taking a few days off to enjoy some time with my family and Mike Grogan will be handling the morning and noon weather duties.  Thanks to Mike in advance! 

I'll also take a break from posting the weather blog here at for the next few days, but I will be posting regular updates on my Facebook pages and my twitter feed. 

Thanks for reading and have a super great day! 

Alan Crone