Friday Morning Discussion

Friday, October 11th 2013, 4:35 am
By: Alan Crone

Highs today are expected in the lower 80s with partly cloudy and breezy conditions.  Storm chances will increase soon across the region and continue through early next week. There may be a few storms tonight across eastern OK.   

Here we go.  We're about to move into an active weather pattern that will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the region.   

Our first chance will occur tonight into Saturday morning, followed by higher chances Sunday evening into Monday morning, and then Monday night into Tuesday morning.  A few strong to severe storms may be possible this evening across northeastern OK and then again Saturday afternoon or evening across the Red River Valley.  

A complex weather scenario will unfold over the next 36 hours.  A powerful upper level system currently over the Rockies will rapidly lift northeast this afternoon and tonight.  A surface cold front will approach the region later tonight into early Saturday morning bring some rain and thunderstorm chances to the region.  A dry line (a feature that separates moisture and dry air) will be moving toward the I-35 corridor later this afternoon and tonight.  This feature may help produce a few scattered storms tonight before the cold front catches up with the dry line early Saturday morning.  Here's the tricky part:  A few storms could develop during Friday night football games, but the odds will remain low.  Some hi-resolution model data (RAP) points toward northeastern OK areas including the Tulsa metro for a few isolated storms to form this evening. It may be a close call for a few football games tonight, so I have no choice but to encourage you to be prepared just in case a storm does form.   The NSSL 4K doesn't break out any convection until around 10pm to midnight.  

The front will sag southward Saturday morning to near or slightly southeast of the I-40 corridor by midday.  Some early Saturday morning shower or thunderstorm activity will be possible with morning lows in the upper 50s or lower 60s but the coverage may be on the low side. Locations southeast of the boundary Saturday afternoon could see additional Thunderstorm activity that may be strong to severe.  The higher probability for this scenario will remain across far south-central and southeastern OK into the North Texas vicinity.  Our probability in northern OK Saturday afternoon will remain around 20%.  

Sunday yet another strong upper level trough will drop across the Rockies causing the surface pressures to fall and our winds to back from the east and southeast.  The front to out south Sunday morning will lift northward Sunday afternoon or evening into northern OK and southern Kansas as a warm front.  This will bring moist and unstable air back across the northern OK region allowing showers and storms to develop by Sunday evening.  An increasing low level jet (winds slightly elevated off the surface) overnight Sunday into Monday morning should aide in the development and strength of the storms.  A few could marginally be severe with some small hail, but moderate to heavy rainfall may be the biggest concern.  

Monday night into Tuesday, the front finally moves southeast again bringing another round of rain and thunderstorm activity to the area with dry and stable air following Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Much cooler air will also arrive after this frontal passage with mid 60s for highs Tuesday through Thursday of next week.  Morning lows Wednesday through Friday will more than likely drop into the mid-40s.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 3:18pm.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low is 52.

The daily records include a high of 94 from 1979 and also 1975.  The record low is 30 from 1906.

Precipitation for the year remains at 29.96" which is -6.02 from normal compared to year to date averages.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.  

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone



OU vs TX.

We continue to keep game temps starting around 80 and finishing the lower 80s with south breezes around 10 mph.  There will remain a slight chance for showers and storms during the game.