Friday Morning Update

Good morning.  Welcome to Friday.  We expect another afternoon with daytime highs approaching 90.  Gusty south winds at 15 to 25 miles per hour will be common.  We're tracking cold fronts that will enter Northwestern Oklahoma later this evening and move across the northern part of the state Saturday.  The system will provide a good chance of rain and thunderstorm activity to portions of the area.  A few severe storms are possible this evening across the high plains of Texas and also extreme western Oklahoma.  We are not anticipating severe weather across our immediate area Saturday.   

 A broad upper level trough is positioned over the Intermountain West this morning.  A surface cold front is located across portions of Colorado and Kansas, .  The air mass ahead of this boundary is characterized with gusty south winds and warm conditions.  Low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to stream north into the warm sector this morning.   

 The cold front will be approaching the I-35 Area by early Saturday morning.  Rain and thunderstorm activity may approach portions of northern Oklahoma, including the Tulsa Metro, as early as 8 AM or as late as noon.   Rain and thunderstorm activity may slowly decrease by early afternoon, but will be expected to increase again Saturday evening along and south of I 40.  Some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be a possibility across the southern third of the state but no significant areas of flooding will be expected.  

 The temperatures Saturday will be tricky due to the influence of rain cooled air.  Yesterday, some data indicated temperatures would top out in the upper 70s but would fall into the 60s and rain areas.  Today data is not so robust, but still offers some cooler air across the state.  North winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour will be likely tomorrow behind the boundary.  

 As the upper air trough lifts north and east Saturday evening, the surface cold front will probably stall across far southern Oklahoma.  This sets of the possibility of rainfall Sunday morning across southern Oklahoma.  If the boundary stalls more north than anticipated, Tulsa would have rain Sunday morning.  But at this point in the forecast cycle, will keep most of the Sunday precipitation across far southern and southeastern OK. 

 Temperatures Sunday morning will start in the 50s and finish in the upper 70s to near 80.  Temperatures next week will warm with daytime back in the mid 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.   

 Model data indicates a system late next week along with some cooler air.  Obviously were many days away from this possible event, and things can and do change.  We will keep you posted.   

 In summary, another windy and mild afternoon is anticipated before rain chances and cooler air arrives Saturday.   

 The Thursday high in Tulsa was 92 recorded at 3:45pm.

 The normal average high is now 79 and the low is 57.

Daily Records include a high of 96 from 1954, 1953, and 1911.  The record low is 35 from 1942.  

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 Thanks for reading Friday morning weather discussion blog. 

 Have a super great day.

 Alan Crone

 PS.

 Friday night football looks good for most, if not all of the state.  Some storm activity may be possible across far western OK.  Game time temperatures will start in the low 80s and finish in the lower 70s across Northeastern OK.  Gusty south winds will be likely for the first half of the game.   

 The Komen Race for the Cure is Saturday morning in Tulsa.  There will be a chance of rain during portions of the event. 

 College football Saturday:

 The Sooners travel to South Bend Indiana to play Notre Dame.  Kick-off at 2:30pm will support a temperature near 76 with partly cloudy conditions. 

  The OSU Cowboys will be in Morgantown West Virginia for an 11AM start.  Temperatures will remain the mid to upper 60s for the game.