Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, September 26th 2013, 4:37 am

Good morning.  We expect a rather breezy and warm afternoon with daytime highs approaching the lower 90s.  South to southeast winds in the 10 to 20 miles per hour range will be common across eastern Oklahoma with higher wind speeds across the western third of the state.  A cold front will approach the area Saturday bringing a good chance of rain and thunderstorm activity.  Some shower and thunderstorm activity may linger early Sunday morning near or south of the I-40 corridor.  This severe weather threat with the Saturday system is expected to remain very low.   

 A broad upper level storm system is located across the Intermountain region west this morning and continues to move east to NE.  A surface cold front is forming and will move across the Rockies later today.  This cold front will enter western Oklahoma and western Kansas early Saturday morning and continue to move east southeast during the day.  Rain and thunderstorm activity could approach northeastern Oklahoma during the early to mid-morning hours of Saturday.  This timing is slightly faster compared to data yesterday morning, but the front is expected to slow it southeastward progression during the day as the upper level support rapidly lifts NE away from the central and southern plains.  Recent GFS data support keeping a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms activity Sunday morning near and south of Tulsa while EURO data support a more progressive movement with the system.  We will keep a high probability of rain and thunderstorm activity for the Saturday time while decreasing the probability after the early Sunday morning hours. The GFS would support a wet early Sunday morning across the southern third of the state, but we're only holding a 20 to 30% chance of occurrence Sunday morning for this potential.  

 Temperatures today are expected to be above the seasonal average with lower 90s across eastern Oklahoma.  Friday temperatures drop a few degrees, but still top out in the upper 80s to bear 90.  Morning lows will be back in the mid 60s tomorrow morning and near 70 Saturday morning.  Saturday afternoon temperatures may stay in the 70s due to rain cooled air.  RAW NAM numbers indicate some upper 60s would also be possible.  More on this scenario tomorrow.  Sunday morning temperatures in the 50s will be common with afternoon highs in the upper 70s.  Extended data support another system approaching our area by the end of next week.   

 In summary, we expect sunshine, gusty south winds, and highs in the lower 90s today.  Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday.  

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 85 recorded at 4:52pm.    The normal high is 80 and the normal low is 58.  

 Daily records include a high of 96 from 1938, 1920, and 1905.  The record low is 37 from 1912.  

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 I'll be discussing the statewide and regional forecast on radio Oklahoma news network affiliates this morning.   

 Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.   

 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone'



 PS.  We have a big Thursday night college football game in town!  Iowa State will play the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight at 630.  Game time temperatures will be in the 80s during the first quarter and drop into the 70's by the end of the game.  Gusty south winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour will be likely.