Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, September 25th 2013, 4:32 am

The weather looks good today and tomorrow but a cold front will be arriving Saturday.  This system will bring rain and storms to the state, including northeastern Oklahoma.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected in the lower to mid-80s with northeast winds for the first half of the day and southeast winds later this afternoon around 10 miles per hour.  Mostly sunny conditions will be the call.  A warming trend will continue through the end of the week with some locations approaching 90.  Morning lows in the 50s will be replaced with morning temperatures in the 60s Thursday and Friday.  

 A strong upper level system is developing off the Pacific coast this morning. This upper level trough will move into the interior U.S. in the next 24 to 36 hours.  Pressure falls across the Lee of the Rockies will induce south winds sometime later tonight and will continue Thursday and Friday.  The pressure gradient will be increasing Thursday and Friday bringing windy conditions to the state.  Low-level moisture, which has been confined to the Gulf Coast region the past few days, will be streaming north Thursday night through Saturday.  A surface cold front will approach Northwestern Oklahoma Saturday morning and move across the northern third of the state during the day Saturday.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely during this time and may continue Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday.  Computer model data indicates most of the precipitation should be out of our immediate area by early Sunday morning but southern OK may experience showers and storms early Sunday morning for a few hours.  If all goes as planned, shower and thunderstorm activity will not begin until late morning or mid-day across the northern third of Oklahoma Saturday.   At this point in the forecast cycle, severe weather threats will remain low, but not zero.  Temperatures behind the departing system will be slightly below the seasonal average with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the upper 70s.  

 Extended data is supporting another strong system arriving sometime late next week.  Model output suggests a significant cold front between October 4th and 5th bringing a colder air mass to NE OK.   This confidence for this portion of the forecast remains extremely low.    

 In summary, a warming trend will continue through the end of the week before a cold fan arrives Saturday with increasing rain and storm chances.   

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 83 recorded at 3:15pm.  

 The normal low temperature is 58 and the normal high temperature is 80.  

 Daily Records include a high of 99 from 1939 and a low of 42 from 2001. 

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 Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.   

 Have a super great day!

Alan Crone