Monday Morning Update

Good morning and welcome to fall!  This past weekend has been wonderful.  Morning lows have been in the upper 40s and lower 50s with daytime highs near 80.  This morning is no exception with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s across northeastern Oklahoma.  We anticipate daytime highs in the lower 80s.  We are tracking a small but strong upper level system that will brush the state this evening.  I suppose it's not impossible for a small shower or thunderstorm across extreme eastern Oklahoma either late tonight or early Tuesday morning, but low level moisture is lacking and a chance will remain near or less than 10 percent.  This upper level system currently moving out of Colorado will move rapidly east northeast away from OK by early tomorrow.  After this upper level system passes to the north brining a cold front into the area tomorrow morning, a mid level ridge of high Pressure will be the dominant feature for the next few days.  This ridge will move eastward by the end of the week allowing for a slight increase in moisture values by Friday and Saturday.  As mentioned last week, data is suggesting a strong upper level system nearing the area by Friday and Saturday.  This would mean an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime by the end of the week.  At this point in the forecast cycle, the higher probability for thunderstorm activity will occur Saturday.  The upper level pattern would support a chance for severe weather, but the lack of low-level moisture may greatly inhibit this possibility.  At this point, I will make no mention of severe weather on air for this portion of the forecast.  The data supports a cold front moving across the state Saturday afternoon and evening.  The timing of this system could change.   

 Morning Lows will continue to be pleasant mainly in the 50s for the next several mornings. But daytime highs will continue to climb above the seasonal average through the end of the week.  Mid to upper 80s will be possible as early as Wednesday and likely through the end of the week.   

 The high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 80 recorded at 4:04pm. 

 The normal average high is 81.   The normal average low is 59. 

 Our daily records include a high of 101 from 1931 and a low of 37 from 1995. 

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

 I'll be discussing the statewide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates. 

 Thanks for reading me Monday morning weather discussion and blog.  

 Have a nice day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV