Monday Morning Update

Monday, September 16th 2013, 4:35 am

We're tracking a weak cold front this morning that may bring a few showers and thunderstorms to northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Despite the cold front nearing the area, temperatures today will probably stay in the mid or upper 80s for highs.  Some data suggest the lower 80s.   

The cold front is now located roughly along a line from Tulsa southwest to Hobart.   Data suggest this boundary will slide southward over the next several hours before slowing down and becoming diffuse later tonight.  After the early morning hours, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms may still be possible this afternoon and early evening along the cool side (north side) of the boundary.  I must stress however the coverage of anything to storm activity will remain low.  I will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast and this will be represented by a 40 percent chance on the seven day planner.   

The GFS-EURO-NAM rapidly lifts the front north of the area Tuesday morning.  NAM data would support another decent chance of showers or storms tomorrow midday to afternoon while GFS-EURO would basically keep most of the area dry.  I'll probably use some kind of compromise between the two but lean toward only a 30% pop.  Temps will move to near the upper 80s Tuesday afternoon.  

 A strong upper level low will move across the nation, the northern high plains, by the middle of the week.  Another cold front will sweep across the northern high plains and the Midwest over the next several days.  This second front is expected to be near our area Thursday night and Friday morning.   Higher rain-storm chances will occur with this system by Friday.    

After today, temperatures will remain near or above the seasonal average until late in the week before temperatures will drop a few degrees following the cold front.  The Wednesday and Thursday daytime highs could move into the lower or even mid 90s.  Ugh.  The temps will drop to near or slightly below the normal average by Friday and the weekend.  

 The official high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 89 recorded at 5:42pm. 

 The normal daily average high is 84 and the low is 62.  

 Daily Records include a high temperature of 103 from 1956 and a low temperature of 44 from 1993.

  You'll find me on Twitter and Facebook.   

 I'll be discussing the forecast this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates.   

 Thank you for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.   

 Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone