It's been a long time since we've talked about a healthy chance of rain. The week ahead doesn't promise a good soaker for everyone, but it's likely our dry spell will to a gradual end as a more active weather pattern has developed. After the devastating flooding in Colorado, their weather will quiet down as the focus of rain shifts our way.
Starting with Sunday night into Monday morning, a cold front will slide into the region from the north. Scattered showers and storms are expected near the frontal boundary – emphasis on scattered. Those who see the rain into Monday could pick up a quick inch of rainfall, but not everyone will be so lucky. Either way, clouds and scattered showers and a storm or two will make for an unsettled Monday. More clouds than sunshine? That's a new concept! That may be the case into Tuesday and Wednesday as well with a few lingering showers as the frontal boundary washes out in the state.
There's very little cold air behind this cold front for us. We did enjoy our first cool-down this weekend (check out the attached map of lows from Saturday morning), but our temperatures are not stair-stepping down for the upcoming week. They'll level out in the upper 80s and lower 90s until a stronger storm system arrives Friday morning. It'll give us another decent shot of rain, but it's really the cloud cover that will contribute to most of the cool-down into the mid-80s for highs by Friday. Needless to say, it's a very gradual transition from summer into fall this year. Even the longer-term projection through the end of the month calls for above-normal temperatures.
When we consider the two main storm systems to affect us this week (tonight/Monday and Friday), we could end up with an inch or more of rainfall in the buckets. The second map shows a 5-day estimate of rainfall. Tulsa's rainfall deficit is now over half a foot, so I don't think we'll be eliminating that anytime soon – but at least we're headed in the right direction.
On the Tropical side of things, we're tracking Ingrid, which barely remains a hurricane as of Sunday evening. It's expected to cross the northern Mexican coastline in the next 24 hours and causing flooding and minor wind damage there. Its impacts in the U.S., even in southern Texas, will be minimal.