Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, September 10th 2013, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

Good Morning.  Welcome to Tuesday.  Yes, we're looking at another very warm afternoon with highs in the mid-90s.  And yes, we're still looking at some changes by the end of the week that will bring a chance of showers and storms followed by some cooler air.  Extended data also support another system early next week that would bring rain chances followed by some mild air, but we do have some controversy in the data.  The mid-level ridge of high pressure is located near the area this morning but will continue to move eastward and weaken over the next 36 to 48 hours.  Temperatures at the 5K ft. level will also drop a few degrees and this will bring our surface temps down into the lower 90s soon.  

We've noticed a weak disturbance across Texas this morning moving northward.  This should bring some partly cloudy conditions to our region later this afternoon with highs in the mid-90s.   

As the ridge flattens and slides slightly southeast, an upper level system located across the northern third of the US will move eastward.  A cold front at the surface will move across the central plains today and tomorrow before entering northern OK and southern Kansas Thursday and Friday.  Low level moisture may be slightly elevated from current levels Wednesday into Friday and a few showers or storms may be possible during these time periods as the boundary nears the state.  We are not expecting a broad coverage of storms and this means our probabilities will remain around 20%.  Temps will be near the upper 80s or 90 degree mark Friday into the weekend with morning lows dropping into the upper 60s in Tulsa.  Computer numbers this morning are much lower than yesterday for this time period ( about 80 compared to about 89) for weekend highs.  We'll stick with the warmer readings for the morning package and take another look as the 6z and 12z runs arrive.  

The data also supports a stronger looking system early next week in the form of an upper level system and a surface front nearing the state either Sunday night or Monday.  The precipitation forecast with this season is more robust and may offer a decent chance for showers and storms.  The front sliding southward should bring highs near or below the seasonal average for a few days next week. 

But as mentioned at the top of the page, we do have controversy!  A disturbance is located in the Caribbean this morning and will emerge into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.  This system will be in a favorable position to become a named storm (Ingrid) by later this week.  GFS data brings this system into the Texas Gulf Coast this weekend.  The controversy is what happens early next week.  GFS would bring left-over moisture and circulations northward while EURO keeps the system more southward while bringing a surface boundary across the state.  At this point, we have low probabilities for the Monday and Tuesday period, but obviously reserve the right to make changes as new data and confidence increases in the forecast.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 96 recorded at 3:43pm.

The normal daily average high is 86  and the low is 65. 

Our records include a high of 105 from 1936 and a low of 48 from 1968, 1962, 1902. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing our state-wide forecast on Numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thank you for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone