Back to the real world. We have had a nice little break recently with the relatively cool, wet period that has characterized the end of July and the first two weeks of August. To illustrate, we had a good rain on June 17, then basically no widespread rains until the middle of July when the pattern changed. During that period we also had most of what few triple digit days that have occurred so far this summer.
From the middle of July to the middle of August we have not gone more than a few days without at least some showers or storms in the area and as things have greened up, temperatures have gone down. Now, the pattern has changed again as ridging aloft has become re-established over the central Plains which will keep a lid on our rain chances and also result in a return to more typical August temperatures.
Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which clearly shows OK as high and dry through that period. Not only that, but the longer range guidance also has a basically dry forecast going out to two weeks. That is not to say there will be no rainfall at all as a few, very isolated showers or storms could occur; just that the chances of any one location receiving rainfall are in the slim to none category and certainly no widespread rains are expected over the next two weeks.
Temperatures made it above 90 today for the first time since Aug 7 and we should stay there for the next week or two. Lower 90s are normal at this time of year so we will be warmer than normal to end the month of August with respect to our daytime highs. Our overnight lows have been quite mild with 60s again this morning, but that will be gradually changing as well. Look for lows tonight to be near 70 and in the low 70s through the weekend and into next week.
Light southerly winds together with the warmer temperatures are also contributing to air quality issues and an Ozone Alert is in effect for Thursday and may be necessary for Friday as well. The ridge aloft not only suppresses any chance of rain, but also keeps the clouds to a minimum so look for lots of sunshine each day and generally fair overnight skies. That should be the general rule through the weekend and into next week as well.
So, after a rather extended period of unusually wet, mild weather a return to more typical summer-time conditions will prevail through the end of August and quite likely going into September as well.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.