Friday Morning Update

Posted at 2:45am/updated at 3:10am:  Due to the ongoing rain and storm event in the region, the update will be posted earlier than usual. 

We're tracking another storm complex this morning moving across portions of the area.  Some threat of severe weather will continue for the next few hours or so, but the system will transition to a heavy rainfall threat with flash flooding a possibility in some locations.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of central and northern OK along with some areas of southern Kansas and northwestern Arkansas.  This watch will remain in effect until this evening.  Some locations within the watch area could experience flash flood warnings throughout the morning to midday hours.  You'll find up watch and warning information at the top of this main weather page in the red bar area. 

This system will move across northern OK by midday and then move to southeastern OK by early afternoon as a surface area of low pressure slides southeast.  A mid-level trough aloft will begin to move away from the region later today and the rain and storm chances will taper off northwest to southeast by midday to early afternoon.  North winds will arrive at midday as a surface boundary slides southeastward and slightly drier surface dew points will begin to end the precip process.  High temperatures today could easily stay in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy conditions, but I'll probably keep a high near 78 to 79 on the 7 day planner for the Tulsa metro. 

The big benefit from the departing system will kick in Saturday and Sunday as morning lows will drop in the lower to mid-60s during the weekend.  Saturday afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-80s across northern OK with northeast breezes and the upper 80s Sunday afternoon as southeast winds return around 15 mph. Locations across the Midwest this weekend could experience lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s.  Chicago could easily experience a high near 69 during the last weekend in JULY!

The data early next week remains a little inconsistent in the exact location and placement of some important weather features.  This could mean the difference in another round of strong to heavy storms Monday across northern OK or it could mean the threat would be slightly north in Kansas and the central plains.  Our forecast will continue to keep a chance of thunderstorms for Monday morning lows in the 70s and highs in the lower 80s to near 90.  Most data support a frontal passage Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and temps back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  But if the data is too far south with the Monday system, our temperatures may end up in the lower to mid-90s for the middle of the week.  Unfortunately the confidence remains low for this portion of the forecast and I'll not make any significant changes from our previous set of parameters other than to increase the probability for Monday morning to midday.  Needless to say, however, some changes seem likely as the confidence grows into early next week. 

The official high yesterday was 86 recorded at 4:21pm.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.

Daily records include a high of 106 from both 1978 and 1934.  The record low is 60 from both 2204 and 1905.

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I'll be updating state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning and through the noon hour. 

Thank you very much for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day and a nice weekend!

Alan Crone

KOTV