Thursday Morning Update

Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s today with only a few isolated storms across extreme eastern OK.  A few isolated storms may also be possible Friday across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  

While we did see a few showers and storms yesterday afternoon across southern OK, the majority of activity remained west and south of the region as the big upper level trough responsible for the cool down and wet conditions of late continues to move away from the region.  A mid-level ridge of high pressure centered to our northeast is nudging and expanding westward.  This will bring another day or two of mid or upper 90s across Eastern OK with only an isolated " pop up" thunderstorm probability for extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas today and tomorrow.  The temperature heat index values may also rise to near 100 by Friday.   

The weekend features a few items of interest but the majority of the area will experience only warm and muggy conditions.  A weak boundary has been modeled to move into southern Kansas and southwestern Missouri this weekend as a major upper level trough swings across the Hudson Bay area of Eastern Canada.  The surface boundary will more than likely stay north of the state but the upper air flow will be from the northwest this weekend into early next week.  This means a few of the storms that will form across southern Kansas could move southeast into northeastern OK this weekend.  Yesterday's EURO  trended toward the wetter model compared to the GFS but both models tend to keep the " real deal front" to the north of the state line.  This would fit our climo for the time period as surface boundary passages are rare in mid to late July and early August across the state.  Stranger things have happened and this summer has been unusual regarding the overall pattern.  But at this point, I just don't think the boundary will cross into the 412 Tulsa corridor.  We could, however, experience a few showers or storms and I'll keep the chance in the forecast this weekend with morning lows in the 70s and afternoon highs in the lower to mid-90s.   

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to re-form near the state by midweek allowing temps to move near 100 Tuesday or Wednesday despite the suggestion of another front moving into the region depicted by the GFS data yesterday.  The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast suggesting the potential for a few thunderstorms to float down the flow, but the chance remains very low for next week.

 The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 95 recorded at 3:31pm.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.

Daily records include a high of 113 from 1936 and a low of 63 from 2009 and also 2004.  

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I'll be discussing the forecast this morning through noon hour on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV