Monday Morning Update

The weather pattern appears fairly uneventful for the next few days as a mid-level ridge of high pressure attempts to exert control across most but not all of the state.  This will keep us mostly sunny and warm with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-90s.  The temperature heat index values will be moving from 99 to near 104 for the next few days with the only chance of precipitation in the form of extremely isolated thunderstorms.  We had a stray storm yesterday near Ponca City that clipped far northwestern Osage county as it moved into south-central Kansas.  This morning a few isolated storms have been noted in the same area, mainly across Osage county into far northern Washington County.  These small thundershowers should not last long.  Our pattern is not expected to deviate much over the next 5 days, but some of the extended data does offer a pattern change by next weekend!   This time of year, the models tend to over-exaggerate the southward push of surface cold fronts, but the upper air flow by the end of the week would be in a position to allow a weak wind shift to approach our area. The operational models are in agreement that our mid-level ridge will center up across the four corners area of the U.S. and create another northwest flow across our region by the weekend into early next week.  This pattern more closely resembles early June and not early July! But we are seeing signs of support in the EURO ensemble data.  This means the solution probably shouldn't be dismissed.  But at this point, we'll keep a slight chance of a few isolated storms in the forecast for Thursday and then again into the approaching weekend, but these chances will remain around 10% to near 20%.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 94 recorded at 3:10pm.

The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.

The daily records include a high of 104 from 1933, 1922, and 1918.  The low of 55 was recorded on this date in 1974.  

You'll find me on facebook and twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone 

I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations throughout the morning and midday hours with state-wide and regional weather information.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV