Wednesday Morning Update

Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s along with gusty south winds.  The pattern may change soon allowing for some "not as hot" air and some t-storm chances in the extended forecast.   

Today will be another mid-90 degree day across northern OK and southern Kansas with plenty of sunshine and gusty south winds.  The temperature heat index values this afternoon will be close to 100.  A weak front will arrive Thursday morning across northern OK bringing a wind shift to the northern third of the state but no precipitation is expected due to warm air aloft. This boundary will stall near or slightly north of the I-40 corridor Thursday midday and lift northward into Friday.  The mid-level ridge of high pressure will soon slide east and southeast while weakening.  This will allow a pattern change by the weekend into early next week that may provide a few days with some showers or storms and not as hot air. 

The GFS and EURO are both suggesting the pattern change will occur early next week but it's the EURO that suggest the mid-level ridge will re-form to our west-southwest allowing for several days of northwest flow over the central plains including northern OK.  The northwest flow means that disturbances or storms that generate well northwest our area (common in this pattern) have a chance to move southeast with time and brush portions of the state.  Two weeks ago we were under a northwest flow that brought late night and early morning storms almost every morning.  This pattern change would more than likely occur Saturday  until about Wednesday before the ridge will center back across the southern plains bringing back the mid-90s and very little rain chances.  As it looks this morning, our rain-storm chances will begin pre-dawn Sunday and continue through Tuesday with the higher chances Monday even though some data suggest a few showers or storms would be possible Saturday.   

Temps during this period will drop into the upper 80s or the lower 90s for highs with morning lows in the upper 60s near 70.  The very latest data would suggest the GFS attempts to bring the ridge back by Wednesday while the EURO doesn't develop this feature until almost Friday of next week.  At this point, I'll use a compromise of the two data sets and smooth things out hoping the confidence level will increase during the next 48 hours.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 95 recorded at 3:26 pm.

The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is 67. 

The daily records include a high of 99 from 1953 and a low of 50 from 1913.

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I'll be discussing our weather with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa through the early morning hours.  You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV