Friday Morning Update

We're moving into the weekend with the promise of a pattern change and a warming trend by next week.  But beforehand, the northwest flow aloft may bring one more system into the state Saturday night into Sunday morning with a round of thunderstorm activity.  Temperatures next week will move into the lower 90s along with muggy conditions. 

The weather this morning is wonderfully quiet.  No rain or storm activity is located anywhere across the state, the first time since Monday.  Later this afternoon there may be a small area of isolated thunderstorms located near far northwestern or western OK as a weak disturbance combined with the wind flow helps to create some precip parameters.  These storms or showers will remain well west of our area and we'll expect mostly sunny sky with highs nearing 80 degrees.  The winds will start from the northeast and then back around from the east to southeast during the afternoon in the 10 mph range.   

Saturday morning we'll start with morning lows in the upper 50s or lower 60s and will finish with highs around 84 with southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Saturday afternoon a strong mid-level short wave will slide across the central plains states allowing for severe storms to develop in the Nebraska and Northern Kansas vicinity.  These storms will eventually form a complex of storms and move to the east and southeast with time.  The upper air flow will be from the northwest allowing these expected MCS to move near or over our area by pre-dawn Sunday morning.  The limited amount of low level moisture combined with the overnight and early morning hours will limit the instability but some severe weather in the form of damaging wind or hail cannot be ruled out with the Sunday morning system.  We'll keep the probability for this system on the low side (30%) for one more forecast cycle (this morning) to account for some discrepancy in some of the model data.  The EURO (usually a superior mid-range and extended data set) has suggested this system for a few days now.  The GFS had a system near us for this time period about a week ago before backing off mid-week and now is coming around with a wet solution for the Sunday morning period.  The NAM, which has a higher resolution, has consistently kept the bulk of the system slightly northeast of our immediate Tulsa area, but would allow for some storms to brush far northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  Our pop for Sunday morning will remain near 30% but could go up quite a bit later today with additional model run support.   

After Sunday morning, the upper air flow will transition from a northwest flow aloft to the development of a mid-level ridge extending over the southern plains.  The GFS is not as fast with this ridge development and would keep a northwest flow pattern over the area until Monday night or Tuesday morning.  If this is the case, we would have a chance of showers or storms Sunday night through Monday night.  The other data (including EURO and NAM) are faster with the ridge development and keeps out area clear of any precipitation.  At this point, I'm included to side with the ridge building into the area resulting in a dry forecast into early next week.  Only time will tell for sure.  This ridge is typical for late June, and is a few weeks ahead of schedule from a normal climatological standpoint.  I don't think this is the beginning of the normal summer ridge (death ridge) but will be a temporary ridge displaced by another trough cycle by the middle of the following week.  All of this means we'll be getting warmer next week with very little chance of precipitation, but low level moisture will remain and muggy conditions will prevail.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was a pleasant 79 recorded at 3:34pm.

The normal daily average high is 85 and the low is 65.

The daily records include a high of 100 from 1911 and a low of 51 from 1925.

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I'll be discussing the forecast today with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.   

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma Affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV