Thursday Morning Update

Good Morning.  The MCS this morning (complex of storms) is located across far southern OK and north TX at 3:30am.  This complex ended up farther south than some of the morning data from yesterday, so our chances this morning in the Tulsa metro area are very low.  Locations south of I-40 will be in the running for the next few hours with locations along the Red River with the likelihood of experiencing the storms.   

Today we expect some morning clouds with only a very slight chance of a shower or two somewhere across northern OK.  This chance is probably too low to mention on the 7 day planner, but I'll make that decision right before 5am this morning.   Highs this afternoon may range from 77 to 81 with high in Tulsa near 80.  Northeast winds will remain around 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will clear the area tonight with Friday morning lows in the upper 50s or lower 60s followed by Friday afternoon highs near 80 with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions after a few morning clouds.  

A surface cold front is now located across north TX and is moving southward.  The upper air flow will remain from the northwest for the next 36 to 48 hours.  While slightly drier air at the surface will move across the southern Kansas and northern OK vicinity later this afternoon and evening, the upper air flow may still bring a weak disturbance near western OK during the next 36 hours.  Combined with the surface air flow from the northeast and east, there may be a few isolated storms forming during the overnight period into early Friday morning to midday to our west, but we'll not carry these low probabilities in the forecast.   

The weekend will feature a mid-level ridge of high pressure building across the southern plains with the northern extent of the ridge located across northern OK.  This would create a narrow zone where a few storms may develop across southern Kansas or extreme northern OK Sunday into Monday, but the chance remains around 20%.  We had a few 20 pops in the forecast yesterday for these periods and I think we'll keep them for this forecast cycle.  The 00EURO brings another MCS into the state early Sunday morning across northeastern OK and this is something we'll need to monitor in the data for the next day or so.  Bottom line regarding Sunday:  slight chance of storms in the forecast, but it could go higher.    

The temps during the extended forecast will move to above the seasonal averages with morning lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s early next week.  The recent rainfall will increase the evapotranspiration rates and combined with southeast winds, the relative humidity values may be elevated early next week.  This means we'll be experiencing a typical June air mass but with temps slightly above normal.   

The official high in Tulsa was 83 from 3:47pm.

The normal daily average high is 85 and the low is 65.

The records today include a high of 85 and a low of 65.

We received 0.61 inches of rain in Tulsa yesterday bringing the year to date total to 14.84 inches.  Compared to normal for this date (17.42) we're still -2.58 below normal!

Recent rainfall has been extensive across southern and eastern OK during the last 30 days but locations across far southwestern OK still remain with significant deficits. I'll post some rainfall total maps later this morning on my facebook Fan page.  Speaking of....

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.  You'll also be hearing my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV