Tuesday Morning Update

A small complex of thunderstorm activity continues to slide southeast early this morning (5am) into portions of central OK.  A severe thunderstorm watch is underway for areas of central and south-central OK until 9am due to this forward moving MCS.  The top side of this complex will move across portions of Northern OK including the Tulsa metro before falling apart at mid-morning, but the upper air pattern will also bring another round or two of thunderstorm activity over the area soon.  The activity that moves across the Tulsa metro this morning will not be severe and mainly showers with a few rumbles of thunder.  The severe weather threat will remain for the afternoon into Wednesday and may transition to a heavy rainfall threat pre-dawn Thursday with a slowly sagging frontal boundary moving over the already saturated grounds near I-40. 

The northwest flow pattern aloft is very typical for late May and early June.  This pattern may continue through the middle of the month before a mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across the southern plains and the polar jet begins its annual migration northward.  Some of the long range model guidance indicates this scenario may unfold around the 15th or so.  

Beforehand, we're in the running for more storms, some of which may be strong to severe.  Short range guides and observational data support another cluster of storms to approach the area by either late evening or pre-dawn Wednesday.  A surface cold front will finally get a shove southward during this time and will be entering the northern third of the state Wednesday morning to midday and become another focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday morning.  The upper air dynamics will allow a few strong to severe storms during this time period and all modes of severe weather can't be ruled out.  The higher likelihood for severe will remain with hail, high winds, and eventually heavy rainfall.  The tornado threat should not be high, but it will not be zero either.  

The temps today could move into the mid 80s across northern OK despite the clouds and gusty southeast winds in the 10 to 20 mph range.  After this front slides across the area, we'll see improving weather conditions Thursday afternoon and evening with Friday looking super great. GFS data supports another fast approaching upper wave nearing Saturday which will increase the chance for more storms late Saturday into pre-dawn Sunday.  As the upper level wave nears the area, surface pressures will drop across the Rockies and develop a surface area of low pressure eventually across NW OK.   As southeast winds return Saturday, a quasi-warm front will move to the northern third of the state Saturday night into Sunday morning with a complex of storms likely to develop near or north of this warm front.    It's too early to pinpoint the pre-dawn Sunday storm environment, but we'll keep you posted on a daily basis.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 4:50pm.

The normal daily average high is 84 and the low is 65.

Our records include a high of 102 from 1911 and a low of 49 recorded on this date in 1919.

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You'll hear my statewide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and noon hours.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super Great Day!

Alan Crone
KOTV