Thursday Morning Update

Day two of a three day severe weather event will be underway today and tonight with additional thunderstorms this afternoon that may become severe.  Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible.  A cold front finally pushes across the area Friday night into Saturday morning with heavy rainfall before leaving the area midday Saturday.  Saturday night and Sunday will feature improving and tranquil weather conditions across northern OK.  

The left over showers and storms moved across far Eastern OK early this morning and encountered an atmosphere less conducive for sustaining severe weather.  These storms may produce some small hail and gusty winds for the next hour or two east of Tulsa, but severe weather is not likely to occur.   

There is another batch of showers and storms located across central Kansas moving southeast.  It's unclear whether this activity can survive and move into our area this morning.  If so, they would arrive around midday and would not be severe.  

Later this afternoon, the main upper level system to our northwest will send a strong disturbance into the state.  Wind speeds aloft will be very strong.  The surface instability will be moderate across northeastern OK and low level moisture will be more than sufficient for severe storms.  The dry line will move closer to central OK by this afternoon and thunderstorms will develop near and ahead of this feature by the afternoon.  The storms are expected to remain discrete in nature until later this evening, when a few storm complexes or line segments will form.  There will be a chance for very large hail and tornadoes this afternoon and early evening with any discrete super cells, but the overall coverage may be on the low side.  There will remain some question as to the impact of this morning's activity on the atmosphere for later this afternoon.  The current SPC outlook includes a "slight risk" of severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  If the atmosphere can recover sufficiently from this morning's convection, a moderate risk may be required for part of NE Ok and SE Kansas later today.  

The main upper level system will move into the central high plains later tonight into Friday and become more circular or closed in nature.  But the data support another strong pivot of energy moving around the western side of the low and near northern OK Friday night.  This will drive a cold into northern OK late Friday night with a round of severe storms with heavy rainfall and strong winds.  The disturbance will quickly move northeast into the Missouri Valley by pre-dawn Saturday and will cause the front to slow its progress for a few hours before finally moving southward by Saturday midday taking the rain and storms away from our immediate area.  During this period of late Friday night into Saturday morning, very heavy rainfall is possible and flash flooding may occur in some areas.  A flood watch may be required for part of NE OK during this time period. 

Saturday night dry air will move across the state with clear sky and light wind allowing temps to fall into the upper 50s by Sunday morning.  Sunday afternoon should feature fantastic weather with sunshine, light north winds, and dry air.  The afternoon highs may stay in the upper 70s near 80. 

Early next week the data supports another system nearing the state by the middle of the week with a few storms around Tuesday or Wednesday and I'll include a slight chance of storms for this time period.

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 79 recorded at 11:12am.

The normal high is 83 and the low is 63.

Our daily records include a high of 98 from 1934 and a low of 45 from 1947.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV