Tuesday Morning Update

The cold front is now located southeast of Tulsa but has yet to clear far southeastern OK.  This boundary was (is) responsible for some showers and storms across portions of the state this morning and will continue to bring colder air back to the state today and tomorrow.  After experiencing highs in the lower to mid-70s yesterday afternoon, we'll be dropping into the lower 40s or even the upper 30s by late this afternoon with stout northwest winds.  Once again a significant cold air mass will bring a taste of winter back to the state.  This air mass will not linger as long as the last one did, but will still keep our temps cool Wednesday with morning lows near freezing and highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Thursday looks great with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 60s.  

Regarding the freeze potential for Wednesday morning: 

The air mass will be sufficiently cold and dry to allow the temps to drop below freezing.  Some of the model data ( RAW NAM) suggest a low near 28 Wednesday morning near and northwest of Tulsa.  The sky is expected to be clear, which would also allow the temps to drop, but the wind speeds may not drop below 5 to 10 mph early Wednesday morning.  This wind could be the parameter that keeps some locations around 32 to 33.  The valleys and lower elevations where cold air typically drains will have a better shot at seeing the freeze.  Tender plants would again need to be either covered or taken indoors near and northwest of Tulsa to avoid this possible freeze.  At this point, no freeze watch or warning is underway for our immediate area, but this could change later today. We'll keep our Wednesday morning number right at 32 for this cycle.  

Thursday looks good with sunshine and mild weather.  

Friday another upper level system will approach the area and thunderstorms will be in the forecast.  The surface pattern will support another surface low developing across northwestern OK with moisture surging northward Thursday night into Friday morning.  Despite the meager moisture return, some strong storms may be possible with the Friday system based on pattern recognition and severe weather climatology.   

The extended numbers should be colder than the computer number suggestions ( MOS) but probably a little warmer than the EURO interpolation.  Bottom line:  Friday will remain cool with scattered showers and storms across the eastern third of the state.  Saturday looks good with only a slight chance of showers or storms across eastern OK during the early part of the day followed by highs around 70.  Sunday signals the warm up with mid 70s and we may be pushing some 80s early next week.  The GFS brings another system into the area Sunday and Monday, while the EURO keeps this precip well south of the state.  Due to the big range of possibilities, we'll keep Sunday and Monday dry for this forecast cycle, but obviously will be watching the data closely for updates.  

I don't see any big cold air intrusions this far south in latitude for the next few days ( after this one) and we may be finished with these late season cold air masses across the southern plains.  It would be highly unusual to see this pattern repeat during the early portions of May.  

Speaking of winter:  Our friends in Duluth, MN have had enough!  After last night's snow ( and it's still snowing this morning) they have had over 90 inches of snow during the months of Feb, March, and April making this the snowiest late winter-early spring on record.  At least one inch of snow has been on the ground since Dec 6, 2012, and at least 5 inches of snow has been on the ground for 90 days and counting....

Our high in Tulsa was 76 recorded at 4:27pm.

The normal daily average high is 74  and the low is 52.

Our daily records include a high of93 from 1958 and a low of 36 from 1909.

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I'll also be discussing our weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.

You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV