Monday Morning Update

Despite the active weather pattern we experienced this weekend, the main portion of the weekend turned out just fine.  Most of the storms impacted our region as advertised during the late night and early morning time periods.  Easter Sunday was wonderful for most of the area with sunshine and highs near 70.  The pattern will remain active for the next few days including a major cold frontal passage later today.  This will shove our temperatures back to a winter time feel with highs in the 40s and 50s tomorrow through Thursday and bring more rainfall to the state. 

The cold front is located north of the area this morning but will move southward with time today.  It appears that we should move to near 60 by midday or even early afternoon before the cooler air begins to move across the area. Locations north of Tulsa will see the colder air arrive by midday.  Some of the areas north of highway 412 will drop into the upper 40s by the early afternoon while locations south of I-40 could move into the lower 70s. A few showers will be likely today across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  This activity may remain slightly north of the Tulsa area, but we'll have a chance.  Additional rain will occur overnight into Tuesday for a large area of the state. Last week, we had been using an inverted temp profile, meaning the warmer part of the day would be the morning hours followed by readings into the mid 4os by the afternoon.  Since the cooler air will not arrive until later today, we'll use a normal profile with a high nearing 60 with colder air not arriving until after 4pm for the Tulsa metro.  

A few showers or storms may be possible today behind the boundary, but pre-frontal thunderstorms are not anticipated with this system.  As the colder air slides southward tonight into Tuesday, a strong upper level system will begin influencing the area bringing increasing clouds and a chance of rain to the state. The position of the cold front to our south, and the upper level system nearing overhead will result in a large area of rain with a few thunderstorms moving across the region Tuesday into Wednesday.  Our main precipitation type will be rain, but a few embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible at times across southern OK.  Model data output suggest some decent totals may be possible over the next three days before the system moves eastward by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Consequently, our temps will be below the seasonal average for several days before the system pulls away from the state Thursday.   A rapid warm up is likely Friday into the weekend.  

Another upper level wave will be nearing the state this weekend, but the moisture may be limited.  A few showers may be possible Sunday as a weak cold front slides across the eastern OK area, but this probability will remain very low for this forecast cycle.  

Bottom line:  After today, another cold and wet weather pattern will unfold across northern OK with temps in the 40s and 50s for daytime highs.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 71 recorded at 4:36pm.

The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 45.

The daily high record is 94 recorded in 1946.  The daily record low is 28 recorded on this date in 1972 and 1954.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

Ill also be discussing the weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network Station affiliates across the state through the noon hour today.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV