Tuesday Morning Update

Expect mostly sunny and cool conditions today with highs in the upper 40s.  A warming trend will commence soon with highs near normal tomorrow and into the mid-60s for the rest of the week.  A few showers or storms will also be a possibility from Thursday into part of the weekend.  

The cold air continues to hang on across the area this morning with all locations across NE OK and SE Kansas below freezing.  A surface ridge of high pressure will be nearby this morning through early afternoon allowing for light north winds, mostly clear sky, and cool afternoon temps.  The computer numbers including the RAW NAM are pretty close and we'll stick with a high near 48 in Tulsa. Slightly warmer readings into the lower 50s will be likely west and southwest of the immediate area.  

Tomorrow the surface ridge slides eastward as the pressure begins to fall to our west.  South winds will rapidly increase Wednesday afternoon the 15 to 25 mph range with mostly sunny conditions.  Low level moisture will also increase across the region setting the stage for a few showers or storms to develop Thursday late afternoon into the evening hours.  A few of these showers or storms may produce some small hail.   

The data would suggest a cluster or two of showers and storms into pre-dawn Friday across part of eastern OK.  The model coverage would also suggest about a 50 pop, but I'm still inclined to keep this coverage on the low side, more like a 30 pop.   

Friday night into Saturday morning another round of thunderstorms may be possible as a subtle boundary will be across the northern part of the area.  The upper air flow will remain a weak northwest flow pattern for the weekend.   Saturday night into Sunday morning the surface boundary should get a shove southward and clear the area around dawn Sunday morning.  The timing of this feature will be critical for a lot of Easter Sunrise Services, and frankly at this hour, it's still too early to pin down the exact timing.  Instead of having a high pop for the Sunday morning period, I'll continue to keep a slight mention and make adjustments in the next day or two if conditions warrant an increase.  

The early part of next week could be very interesting.  The GFS and EURO both bring another upper level wave into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, but the EURO is more north compared to the GFS.  The GFS would offer another cold time period with rain and possibly snow, while the EURO would offer a round of storms and temps in the 60s and lower 70s.  Stay tuned.

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 41 recorded at 3: 17pm.

The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 43.

Daily records include a high of 87 from 1918 and a low of 14 from 1955.

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I'll be discussing the weather today with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News  in Tulsa.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Alan Crone