Been talking pretty much all this week about the next storm system that is coming our way and it's potential for dropping some significant rainfall across the state. If you have been following these blogs, I have been posting the QPF maps which are an estimate of the areal average of precipitation for a particular time frame. The QPF map on the right is the most recent estimate and it has maintained the trend we have been seeing for the last day or two. Unfortunately, that trend has been downward. You may recall that at the beginning of the week it looked like there would be several inches of rain across the state which would go a long way toward putting some water in our ponds, lakes, and streams. Now, the estimate is less than one inch and the more western counties much less than that.
These estimates may change again as the storm system we are watching still has not been well sampled by the observational network. It is located off the Pacific Coast of California and the ultimate intensity/timing/positioning of this system will determine just how much moisture we end up with.
Speaking of timing, the trends so far have been to bring it through a little faster with each computer run so have brought the chances of rain primarily into the Saturday time frame although it will most likely be later in the day. The system will be moving on eastward rather quickly so only some lingering showers for the more eastern counties are expected for Sunday morning followed by clearing skies during the day. Speaking of rain chances, could see a few light showers by late Friday or that night, but anything that may fall would be very light.
As that system approaches, today's clear skies will give way to increasing cloud cover tonight and pretty much overcast conditions for Friday and Saturday. We will also have gusty southerly winds through the period and the combination of clouds and southerly winds will ensure our nights will be much milder. In fact, we should only drop into the mid 40s tonight after topping out in the mid 60s this afternoon followed by a morning low in the 50s for Saturday morning.
Daytime highs will be well into the 60s both Friday and Saturday. A cool front will then be sweeping across the state Saturday night with brisk northerly winds for Sunday. That will cool things off with daytime highs in the lower 50s. Monday will be cooler yet, but that will be followed by a warming trend beginning Tuesday afternoon. Right now, there are no additional storm systems on the horizon, so after Saturday and Saturday night, our rain chances will be minimal.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.